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Park Hill presents 10-year enrollment projections; district expects modest shifts in kindergarten cohorts
Summary
District demographer Dr. Kelly presented the 2024–25 student demographic profile and 10-year enrollment projections, which the district will use for budgeting and the Park Hill 2034 planning effort. The presentation highlighted stable overall enrollment with shifts in kindergarten yield and increased student diversity.
Park Hill’s district staff presented the 2024–25 student demographic profile and a 10-year enrollment projection to the board on March 20, describing how the data will guide budgeting, long-range facility planning and the Park Hill 2034 initiative.
District demographer Dr. Kelly said the packet contains multiple models and that the average projection estimates about 11,584 students next year and then a small, gradual change over the 10-year window. The presentation said the district uses five projection models and combines county birth data, historical yields into kindergarten and mobility trends to produce the forecast.
Key points included a growth in student diversity across the district, a stable mobility rate compared with regional peers, and a trend of smaller incoming kindergarten cohorts compared with current high-school cohorts. Dr. Kelly noted that Platte County birth data are used as a proxy because district-level birth counts are not available; that data show a relatively stable number of births in the county but a declining yield into Park Hill kindergarten classes in recent years.
Board members discussed how the profile informs the Park Hill 2034 bond and facilities planning, how temporary classroom units will change once Angeline Washington opens, and how the district compares with benchmark districts (North Kansas City, Liberty, Blue Springs, Lee’s Summit and others). Staff emphasized the profile’s role in short-term budgeting (teacher and staff allocations) and long-range capital planning.
The full demographic profile is included in the board packet and staff said it will be used in forthcoming budget decisions and public communications related to the Park Hill 2034 plan.
