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Demographer presents enrollment scenarios; board requests clarifications and table corrections
Summary
A demographer presented three projection series (A, B, C) for district enrollment. Board members questioned cohort anomalies and asked for corrected tables and for the consultant to price assumptions about new housing, senior housing and kindergarten tuition law changes.
The district’s demographer presented enrollment history and three projection scenarios during the March 20 board meeting and answered board questions about assumptions and local housing impacts.
John (demographer) walked the board through enrollment history slides and the series A/B/C projection slides. Board members probed the assumptions behind series B and C, asked whether the model reflects local Park Ridge/Niles single-family versus multifamily units and requested clarification on how cohort diagonal adjustments and COVID-era shifts were smoothed. One board member asked about a notable cohort jump in future fifth-grade projections and was told that the diagonal cohort methodology explains increases as younger cohorts matriculate through the grades.
Board members also asked whether projections account for recent new senior housing developments and whether those residents are in single-family or multifamily stock. The demographer said the exhibits are based on Park Ridge/Niles data with professional judgment applied; board members asked the consultant to align the slide tables with the long report, noting small discrepancies on two slides and requesting updated tables. The board requested the demographer supply corrected tables and to consider the effect of a state law change expected in 2027–28 that will eliminate kindergarten tuition (the presenter and board discussed the potential for that law to alter kindergarten enrollment patterns). The demographer indicated he would follow up and provide corrected exhibits.
Board members thanked the demographer and asked for the updated materials to ensure alignment with the written report.
