VELCO warns of transmission overloads within decade unless load management steps are taken

Shana Loisel, representing Vermont Electric Power Company (VELCO), told the Vermont House Energy and Digital Infrastructure Committee on March 20 that VELCO’s long‑range transmission plan shows significant transmission constraints within 10 to 20 years if current trends continue.

“The analysis showed that we we had 75 miles of overloaded transmission lines by 2043, and 19 overloaded transformers,” said Zakiyyah El Amari, senior transmission planning engineer with VELCO, summarizing results of the study. The committee convened to discuss H.278 and to hear VELCO’s update on transmission planning, distributed generation growth and storage implications.

VELCO’s modelling examined two time horizons and multiple scenarios. Under a 20‑year “roadmap” policy case (to 2043) that incorporates expected electrification (electric vehicles and heat pumps) the company found up to 75 miles of overloaded transmission and 19 overloaded transformers. In shorter‑term, 10‑year scenarios the company identified specific problem corridors that could require upgrades as early as 2029–2034 if non‑transmission alternatives are not deployed.

Why this matters: overloaded transmission and sub‑transmission facilities can compromise reliability and trigger the need for major line or transformer projects that require long lead times, regional cost allocations and permitting. VELCO emphasized the planning horizon and the need to compare transmission builds against non‑transmission alternatives (NTAs), such as batteries, demand response or other load controls, to identify lower‑cost solutions.

Key findings and locations

- Northern Vermont: VELCO said a new line between Essex and Williston or an aggregate load reduction of roughly 75 megawatts in that northern area would be needed by 2033 to avoid thermal…