At the RSU 40/MSAD 40 school board meeting on Dec. 19, 2026, an administrator presenting enrollment data told board members the district is likely to experience a gradual decline in student numbers of about 1% per year over the next decade, with implications for staffing and budgeting.

The facts: the district currently projects elementary (pre-K–6) enrollment falling from about 945 students to about 891 in 10 years (a decline of roughly 54 students); middle school (grades 7–8) from about 262 to about 238 (a decline of about 24 students); and high school (grades 9–12) from about 500 to about 484 (a decline of about 16 students). The presenter summarized the trend: "So overall, we're faced with this situation where, year by year, it's a pretty small decline of around 1% per year," the administrator said.

Why it matters: board members and administrators said the slow, cumulative drop matters for the upcoming budget process, classroom staffing and long-term facility planning. The presenter linked the district projections to wider demographic trends, noting national and regional drops in birth rates and referencing a Maine Department of Labor presentation showing births in the state have fallen since the 1960s and were roughly half of their peak by 2020.

Supporting details: the presenter pointed to county-level birth-rate changes, saying Knox County had seen a notable decline. The board heard that kindergarten incoming cohorts vary year to year (a cited projected incoming kindergarten class of about 104 in one table and other incoming cohorts around the low 100s), and that cohorts projected now will become future high-school classes—meaning small differences compound over a decade.

Separately, a staff member reported demographic and need indicators from last school year: district enrollment of 1,782 students, 395 special-education students (about 22% of enrollment), 865 students (about 48.5%) classified as economically disadvantaged, 16 foster-care students and 44 students identified as homeless. The staff member noted a strong correlation between special-education status and economic disadvantage: of 395 special-education students, 249 were also economically disadvantaged.

Board discussion and concerns: board members asked how RSU 40 compared with state averages for special education and requested regional comparisons; one board member noted state averages were lower (a cited figure of roughly 17.5% was mentioned as an estimate and the presenter offered to double-check). Members stressed that fewer students does not automatically mean lower costs because student needs (special education, related services) can increase per-pupil spending. One board member urged staff to bring staffing proposals and enrollment-based teacher calculations forward before the budget is finalized so the board can avoid reactive staffing reductions.

Next steps: administrators were asked to include these projections and the clarified special-education and socioeconomic figures in the district budget materials. The presenter said supplemental tables and the packet include the detailed projections and that the board would see staffing and budget proposals informed by this data before final decisions.