Demographic study shows Chippewa Valley enrollment declining over five years; middle schools most underutilized

Plante Moran/RealPoint presented a districtwide enrollment and facility utilization analysis to the Chippewa Valley Schools board on Jan. 13, concluding the district is likely to see continuing enrollment declines linked to lower birth rates and that some facilities have substantial excess capacity.

The big picture: Plante Moran’s five‑year projection shows Chippewa Valley’s total K–12 enrollment falling from the district’s most recent official count of about 14,161 students to roughly 13,309 by 2029 — a projected drop of about 2,172 students from the 2018 high point noted in the firm’s slides. That decline, the consultants said, is primarily driven by lower live births and stable population/household patterns in the district’s boundaries.

Utilization findings and why they matter - Elementary schools: based on classroom counts and current assignments, the consultant estimated elementary general‑education capacity of about 7,358 and projected elementary utilization at roughly 73.6% (an excess capacity near 1,940 seats under five‑year projections). - Middle schools: the study found more significant excess capacity at the 6–8 level, projecting utilization near 57.7% and an excess of about 2,300 seats. - High schools: projected utilization about 73.5% (capacity ~6,290 vs projected enrollment ~4,633).

Plante Moran recommended steps typical to districts facing persistent decline: revisit educational program and facility alignments, update the district’s 10‑year capital plan, and consider a rightsizing plan and modernization strategy to preserve program equity across buildings. “One of the things we really want the board administration to focus on is the Department of Treasury really wants you about 85% utilized as a district,” a consultant said during the presentation, noting underutilization shifts dollars away from classroom programs.

Board reaction and timing Board members asked whether the analysis drilled down to north/south differences within the district; consultants said they performed building‑level and student heat‑mapping and incorporated open enrollment and schools‑of‑choice patterns. The board and superintendent said administration will return with a proposed process for community engagement and a recommended timeline; administration told the board it intends to present an initial plan in February to start a longer rightsizing and capital‑planning discussion. Board members emphasized the work will require public input and likely take multiple years.

Ending note District leaders said they value the data and will use it to inform a community process and capital plan updates. The consultants’ report supplied the board with demographic context — falling live births across the state and county — and building‑level utilization numbers the administration said it will use as the basis for next steps.