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State forecast projects modest 10‑year prison growth; officials point to changing offense mix
Summary
A 10‑year prison population forecast prepared by the state's planning division and presented by DOC research director Sarah Finneran projects about a 9.1% increase and highlights rising violent convictions, longer lengths of stay and a higher share of serious offenses in the population.
Sarah Finneran, research director for the Department of Corrections, presented highlights from the annual prison population forecast produced by the state planning division (now named the Division of Planning and Improvement). She said the report projects a 10‑year population increase of about 9.1 and noted the department and parole board use the forecast to adapt policies and practices.
Finneran summarized several findings she said are driving population dynamics: an increase in violent convictions (about 38%), a roughly 35% rise in violent felony convictions over the last five years, and a 19% increase in overall prison admissions over the past 10 years. She also said prison returns (revocations) have decreased about 29% over 10 years, while average length of stay has increased about 36% over the same period.
Finneran emphasized a shift in the composition of the population: the share of people serving for certain serious offenses has risen. She cited a 17% increase in individuals serving 9012 mandatory minimum offenses and increases in people serving for the most serious assault (37%) and murder/manslaughter (29%) categories. Those three categories together represented about 44% of the prison population as of June 30, 2024, she said; in 2015 they represented about 36%.
Finneran characterized this year's projection as lower than some historical forecasts and said the department regularly uses the forecast to try to avoid fully realizing the projected increase. "This report projects a 10 year prison population forecast increase projected at about 9.1%." She also offered to forward technical questions to the state planning division.
