Frederick County staff report lower vehicle values, plan to advertise real‑estate tax rate as budget discussions continue

County revenue staff told the Frederick County Board of Supervisors that updated vehicle valuations and other changes have cut projected personal‑property revenue, shrinking available funds as the board moves to advertise its proposed budget and tax rate.

Mister Bolhofer, the county’s commissioner of revenue, told supervisors that new vehicle valuation data from a commercial source reduced the assessed value of the top vehicle makes by about $80 million in the county’s tax book and that the office has recorded an aggregate reduction of roughly $2.7 million so far in projected personal‑property revenue. County staff later summarized the working estimate for a 2026 shortfall at about $2.0 million.

The potential shortfall comes as staff and supervisors discussed advertising a proposed real‑estate tax rate of 48¢. County staff said that at 48¢ the county would realize about a $5 million windfall in the current fiscal year, and that under the scenarios shown the advertisement can be sent immediately while staff refines revenue numbers.

Why it matters: personal‑property assessments and the timing of supplemental assessments influence both the fiscal‑year 2025 carryover and the fiscal‑year 2026 budget. Supervisors said they want more precise figures before finalizing decisions that affect transfers to school operations and capital projects.

Key details and schedule - Personal‑property: staff reported an initial $2.7 million reduction in projected revenue tied to lower vehicle values; subsequent supplementals and added values reduced that estimate to roughly $2.0 million. Staff said supplements (late‑added vehicle registrations and transfers) typically add between $900,000 and $2,000,000 over time. - Real estate at 48¢: staff said the 48¢ scenario generates approximately $5 million in a current‑year windfall, which helps offset the personal‑property reduction but would leave less rollover than previously estimated for FY2026. - Advertisement timing: staff said the budget advertisement could be released the next day with the 48¢ rate; the board emphasized that advertising does not lock the board into final adoption and noted statutory timing constraints for public hearings and adoption. - Meetings scheduled: supervisors agreed to hold a workshop the following Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. to review updated revenue projections and a follow‑up meeting on April 2 at 5:00 p.m. (tentative) to prepare the budget resolution ahead of the April 9 adoption date in the calendar staff presented.

Questions and uncertainties County staff and several supervisors pressed for clarity about how supplemental assessments, mobile‑home classifications, and changes in vehicle counts affect revenue. Staff said they continue to add values to the tax book and that personal‑property projections will improve as more supplementals are entered; staff pointed to daily changes in the working totals (examples given: $79 million vs. $77 million of ‘current blue’ values at different times during the update process).

School and capital impacts Supervisors and staff discussed transfers to school operating and capital funds. The advertisement under discussion included proposed capital transfers of $7 million for transportation and $4 million for school capital, and staff noted a proposed reduction of $4.5 million in the transfer to school operating from earlier amounts. Staff also said they expect updated school revenue numbers (an additional roughly $615,000 noted by staff) and will circulate final figures before the next meeting.

Process and legal timing Staff reminded the board of Virginia timing requirements for budget advertisement and public hearings (a minimum notice window) and explained that advertising the budget identifies the proposed rates and expenditures for public comment; the board may lower amounts after the hearing but faces advertising constraints if it raises the rates beyond certain thresholds without re‑advertising.

Ending Supervisors asked staff to refine projections, circulate updated spreadsheets a day or two before the next workshop, and return with a five‑year outlook on revenues and debt impacts. Staff committed to producing clearer numbers for the scheduled workshop and to sending the draft advertisement to supervisors the following day.