Northeast Florida Regional Council presents Flagler County vulnerability assessment and compound‑flooding analysis; adaptation plan draft forthcoming

Andrew Prokopiak, senior resiliency planner at the Northeast Florida Regional Council, told the Flagler County Board of County Commissioners at a Sept. 15 workshop that the council completed a countywide vulnerability assessment late last year and a compound flooding analysis this year that together identify infrastructure, buildings and natural resources at risk from multiple flood hazards.

The assessment, Prokopiak said, maps exposure to rainfall‑driven floods (including 100‑year events), storm surge and tidal or “nuisance” flooding and scores the sensitivity of assets — for example, distinguishing a historic downtown structure from a vegetated open space. Prokopiak told the commission the assessment was required under the Resilient Florida grant program and that the county needed the analysis to pursue some state funding: “If you want DEP money, you had to have this done first,” he said.

Why it matters: Commissioners and staff were told the analysis is a planning and grant‑application tool that helps prioritize projects where limited resiliency funds will have the most effect. Prokopiak also stressed that the new compound flooding work — which models multiple flood drivers occurring simultaneously — produces materially different results than single‑hazard models and is among the first completed for the region.

Key findings and tools - The vulnerability assessment identifies critical assets that the state expects counties to evaluate, including wastewater treatment plants, lift stations, transportation routes, parks and shorelines. The council said those asset inventories and GIS datasets are public on the Resilient First Coast website. - The compound flooding analysis, done for Flagler County by Taylor Engineering, maps deeper and more extensive flooding in some areas than the vulnerability assessment alone. Prokopiak said in some northern wetland areas the compound model shows nearly four feet more water than the single‑hazard model for the scenario examined. - The analyses were modeled across multiple planning horizons and sea‑level scenarios and use NOAA guidance and other regional datasets, the presenter said. Prokopiak called the results a “data‑backed analysis” intended to guide prioritization rather than a prescription for policy changes.

Adaptation planning and funding Prokopiak described an adaptation plan being written for Flagler County that will translate the assessment into short‑ and medium‑term adaptation measures for three county focus areas: beaches, transportation/evacuation routes and other critical infrastructure. Examples discussed include bioswales and vegetation for drainage, roadway elevation in key segments, beach renourishment and dune vegetation, elevating or relocating lift stations, and burial or relocation of utilities. Prokopiak said the adaptation plan is intended to strengthen applications for state and federal resiliency grants; he described the vulnerability assessment as “the key in the door” and the adaptation plan as what “opens the door.”

Policy and planning notes Prokopiak told the board the state requires delivery of GIS exposure and sensitivity data and a written sensitivity assessment; additional items such as public outreach and focus‑area workshops are recommended but not required. He also cautioned that integrating the new datasets into local regulatory code (for example, land‑development ordinances) may be affected by pending state legislation (he referenced Senate Bill 180), so the county and region will need to evaluate how to use the data in planning and code updates.

Public comment and local concerns After the presentation the board opened public comment. Benjamin Brandow, who identified himself as an ecotourism advocate and producer of a news program, urged “self‑healing” shoreline solutions such as reef‑based approaches rather than relying solely on sand renourishment. Richard Hamilton, a longtime resident, said the presentation offered useful data but that residents remain concerned about flooding coming in from the Intracoastal Waterway and Matanzas Inlet. Matthew Wright, a resident near County Road 80, said he was worried about a recently approved large subdivision in the city of Bunnell and asked how the county could prevent downstream flooding impacts.

County staff and commissioners responded that the county has shared data with municipalities and that the regional datasets will be presented again at a public meeting. Prokopiak and NEFRC staff said a draft adaptation plan would be available for review and that a public presentation would be held at the Flagler County Emergency Operations Center on a Thursday evening from 5:30 to 7:00 p.m.; staff indicated the resiliency team and GIS staff would attend to answer technical questions.

What was not decided No formal ordinance or regulatory change was adopted at the workshop. The presentation and public comment were informational; the adaptation plan was still in draft at the time of the meeting and no county commission vote on policy or funding was recorded in the transcript.

Where to find the data Prokopiak said the vulnerability assessment maps, the compound flooding analysis and the county asset inventories are hosted on the Resilient First Coast regional site and can be accessed online. The presenter said the compound flooding report was complete and available on request.

A final note Commissioners and presenters described the analyses as tools for prioritizing limited resiliency dollars and for strengthening grant applications. Prokopiak repeated that the vulnerability assessment was required for certain state funding and that the forthcoming adaptation plan would list specific projects that could be pursued with state, federal or other grants.