JBC warned small TABOR surpluses, tax‑credit cuts likely and federal reconciliation could erase reserves

Legislative fiscal staff and the Office of State Planning and Budgeting told the Joint Budget Committee on June 10 that lower economic growth and collections have narrowed the state’s TABOR surpluses and will reduce or suspend several revenue‑linked tax credits for tax year 2026.

The Legislative Council’s June forecast shows weaker collections than March and calculates that the family affordability tax credit and an expanded earned income tax credit will be unavailable for tax year 2026 under the statutory revenue triggers. Emily Dorman of Legislative Council said the credits’ availability “is determined by later forecasts” and that the June numbers put the credits into the reduced‑or‑off category.

Why it matters: Colorado’s TABOR (Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights) refunds and tax credit triggers are highly sensitive to small revenue changes. Legislative Council staff said that, under the June forecast, revenue subject to TABOR would fall short of the cap in fiscal 2026, producing only narrow…