GBRA outlines $5.9 billion "Water Secure" plan; Fair Oaks Ranch weighs participation

At a workshop July 17, the Guadalupe Blanco River Authority (GBRA) and city staff briefed Fair Oaks Ranch council on a regional "Water Secure" project that would develop large-scale surface-water infrastructure to serve multiple utilities across the region. GBRA seeks nonbinding memoranda of understanding (MOUs) from interested utilities as it advances planning and funding work.

GBRA deputy engineering manager Brian Perkins described the concept as a regional supply program that would use GBRA's Lower Guadalupe River surface-water rights, an off-channel reservoir, a large water-treatment plant, an aquifer storage and recovery (ASR) system and long transmission pipelines. "We landed on about a 90,000,000-gallon a day project," Perkins said in the presentation. Perkins and the consultants estimated capital costs for the project at about $5.9 billion and said the program could require roughly 250 miles of pipeline.

City staff framed the local question: current city water supply is a mix of city-owned potable wells and purchases from GBRA. Grant Watanabe, the city's public works director, said the city's firm well capacity is about 750 acre-feet per year and the city holds reservations (contracts) with GBRA totaling 1,850 acre-feet; current annual purchases are about 1,344 acre-feet. Using a conservative planning demand of 0.62 acre-feet per connection, staff projected buildout peak demand at about 2,805 acre-feet; the current combined supply and contractual reserves were shown at about 2,600 acre-feet, leaving a gap of roughly 205 acre-feet under the conservative scenario.

Perkins said GBRA aims to have initial water deliveries available by about 2033 if the program begins in 2026, but noted an ASR system and filling timeline would make full availability of certain contract volumes a multi-year process (ASR filling could take 5'8 years). GBRA has started asking utilities to sign nonbinding MOUs indicating interest and quantity; those MOUs would inform final water-supply agreements if participants proceed. Perkins said GBRA intends to seek funding through state programs (including SWIFT) and noted a recent change allowing certain SWIFT loans to be amortized up to 40 years in some cases, a change GBRA considers useful given the long lead time for construction and supply delivery.

Costs and council reaction: council members pressed GBRA and staff on timing, who would pay for infrastructure and the city's near- and long-term needs. Perkins and GBRA's consultants estimated a capital cost on the order of $63,000 per acre-foot of delivered storage capacity. Perkins and staff provided rough examples of how a small-city reservation (for example, 300 acre-feet) could translate into multi-million-dollar capital contributions by participants if the project is sized for full regional demand. Perkins and staff emphasized MOUs are nonbinding and that final water-supply agreements (and the finance structure) would define binding obligations and payment terms.

Council discussion reflected caution over the program's scale and cost. Several council members said the city's current planning, including its wells and GBRA reservations, provides a reasonable cushion for Fair Oaks Ranch under the conservative demand assumptions presented. At the end of discussion council did not direct staff to sign an MOU or to execute a binding agreement; staff said MOUs were being circulated to member utilities and that GBRA hopes to have draft water-supply agreements and additional materials available for review in the coming months.

Why it matters: the regional program would create a major new source of treated surface water for central Texas utilities and would set long-term prices, contract terms and project financing that could affect costs and development choices for participating cities. For Fair Oaks Ranch, the council must weigh the small shortfall in conservative buildout projections, the cost to reserve additional supply, and the timeline and financing risks of a decade-scale regional program.

Ending: GBRA and city staff will continue outreach and technical work. Council did not approve participation in a binding agreement at the meeting; staff will bring further information to future meetings if requested.