LMPO presents regional travel-shed analysis; finds commuters and freight from multiple states

LMPO staff presented Aug. 19 the status of a regional traffic volume forecasting model developed in collaboration with the South Plains Association of Governments (SPAG), TxDOT and consultant partners. The informational briefing summarized travel-shed analysis using TxDOT traffic counts, INRIX location-based mobile data and census and employment datasets to map where people and freight originate before traveling into Lubbock County.

The study used travel analysis zones (TAZs) and three years of 24-hour traffic count data to trace origin-destination patterns. "We wanted to answer 1 main question. How far are people coming into Lubbock?" Martin Lucero said, describing the INRIX-derived flows that, when limited to Texas-only trips, still showed regular monthly flows from towns such as La Mesa, Post, Seminole and Plainview and larger contributions from nearby counties such as Hockley, Lynn and Hale.

Why it matters: the analysis showed Lubbock functions as a regional hub for commuting, medical visits, education and freight. Staff reported a monthly aggregate sample reduced from 4.5 million raw trips to roughly 1,040,000 inbound trips after de-duplicating short stops (under 15 minutes) and focusing on Texas origins. Lucero said some inbound trips originate far beyond immediate neighboring counties, including patterns that include New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, Colorado and Arizona.

Staff described methodology details and next steps: TAZ boundary adjustments to match recent census geographies, use of cell-phone-based INRIX data to separate commuter, midsize freight and long-haul freight trip types, and an algorithm to reattach short intermediate stops into single longer chains to avoid double-counting. The LMPO will provide the dataset and presentation to SPAG; SPAG is hiring a consultant and has applied for roughly $200,000 to finish analysis and assess demand for regional rural transit. Lucero said the LMPO will send a travel survey to neighboring counties and economic development partners to ask trip purpose, frequency, time-of-day and whether commuters would use a long-distance commuter service.

Committee members asked timing and use: Lucero said he will present the package to SPAG on Friday and expects to provide a refined growth projection to SPAG by September or October. He noted the model results will inform LMPO’s travel demand model update starting next year. Councilmember Martinez Garcia and others praised the clarity of the presentation and recommended outreach and social-media communications for public engagement. The presentation and TAZ maps are part of the meeting backup.