Midwestern compact warns North Dakota officials of a coming demographic cliff and outlines closure risks

Susan Heegard, president of the Midwestern Higher Education Compact, told the North Dakota Legislative Committee on Higher Education on Friday that regional and national enrollment trends show a potential multi‑year decline in the traditional college‑age population and urged state leaders to prepare.

Heegard said the region faces a “demographic cliff” driven by lower birthrates dating to the Great Recession and that enrollment effects are likely to begin appearing in the mid‑2020s. She told committee members, “a demographic cliff is projected over the next 2 decades and yes, it'll even happen here.”

The warning matters because enrollment determines tuition revenue and institutional viability. Heegard said enrollment and financial stress have already produced closures and consolidations elsewhere in the Midwest, with 190 campus closures regionally in the past decade and the private for‑profit sector accounting for most of those shutdowns.

Her presentation summarized policy tools states use to reduce student…