Flow Analytics presented a 10-year enrollment forecast for Silver Falls School District that uses cohort-projection and demographic methods and three scenarios (low, middle, high). "We prepared 3 scenarios. We call it the low, middle, and high scenarios for the district wide," consultant Alex Roche said during the presentation.

Roche said the district's October 2024 enrollment used for the forecast was 3,683 students and the firm projects a roughly flat district total under the middle scenario through 2034. He emphasized two drivers: births in the district and the district's unusually large out‑of‑district enrollment. "You have a total of 449 students that live outside the district boundary that enroll with the district. That's about 12% of your enrollment," Roche said, adding that districts with 10% or more out‑of‑district enrollment are atypical.

Key findings presented to the board:
- October 2024 headcount baseline: 3,683 students (district-wide).
- Out-of-district enrollments: 449 students, about 12% of total enrollment. Roche noted such a share affects projections because those students are sensitive to different policies and choices.
- Student generation rates from new housing (2014–2023): single‑family units produced roughly 0.503 K–12 students per unit; multifamily ~0.36 students per unit. Roche said income‑restricted housing had higher student yields but the sample size was small.
- Birth-to-kindergarten ratios: using Oregon Health Authority birth data under a data‑sharing agreement, Roche showed the K/birth ratio fell below 1 in 2020–21 (0.87–0.88) and rebounded above 1 afterward; recent cohorts remain lower than pre‑pandemic highs.
- Forecast uncertainty: Flow Analytics' low/high scenarios bracket the middle projection by roughly ±10% at the 10‑year horizon; one‑year forecasts typically aim for <1% error district‑wide.

Board members asked about the causes of recent declines and the firm replied that choice (charter/private/homeschool) and COVID‑era delays in kindergarten enrollment account for much of the short‑term fluctuation; Flow Analytics recommended monitoring kindergarten registrations and October counts to test forecast accuracy.

Roche recommended continued district tracking of residents who live in the district but enroll elsewhere, and the district indicated staff will continue to provide updated October 2025 numbers to compare to the forecast.