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Flow Analytics projects roughly flat enrollment at Silver Falls over next decade
Summary
A consultant from Flow Analytics presented 10-year enrollment forecasts showing a roughly flat district total (Oct. 2024 baseline 3,683), a sizable out-of-district enrollment component (about 449 students, ~12%) and lower projected kindergarten classes tied to birth trends.
Flow Analytics presented a 10-year enrollment forecast for Silver Falls School District that uses cohort-projection and demographic methods and three scenarios (low, middle, high). "We prepared 3 scenarios. We call it the low, middle, and high scenarios for the district wide," consultant Alex Roche said during the presentation.
Roche said the district's October 2024 enrollment used for the forecast was 3,683 students and the firm projects a roughly flat district total under the middle scenario through 2034. He emphasized two drivers: births in the district and the district's unusually large…
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