State economist: Rochester—s labor market strong but manufacturing faces tariff-driven uncertainty

Brian Gottlieb, director of the New Hampshire Employment Security Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau and principal of PollEcon Research, told the Rochester City Council on Aug. 19, 2025, that Rochester—s labor market shows strengths but faces risks tied to manufacturing and slower private-sector job growth.

Gottlieb said New Hampshire has outperformed other New England states in private-sector job growth and that Rochester—s unemployment rate is lower than the statewide rate. "Rochester has a lower unemployment rate than New Hampshire," he said, attributing some of the city—s strength to its position in a dynamic regional labor market.

Gottlieb placed particular emphasis on the city—s industry mix. He said Rochester has higher concentrations of retail and manufacturing than the state average, noting that retail and hospitality growth helps employment totals but tends to damp average wages. "When you look at average weekly wages and the growth, you've had a lot of retail growth," he said.

The economist warned that manufacturing faces near-term uncertainty. He attributed some of that uncertainty to recently announced tariffs and a resulting investment pause: "That line— that's probably too fine for you to see— that's Liberation Day. That's when the tariffs were announced. It created a lot of uncertainty, and one of the impacts has been on the manufacturing sector." He cited aerospace-related exporters in the region, naming Albany International and other local manufacturers as examples of firms exposed to trade shifts.

Gottlieb also offered local-level data: he said roughly 16,000 Rochester residents were employed (primary jobs) in the dataset he showed, and only about 3,000 of those both live and work in Rochester — meaning roughly four out of five Rochester residents with jobs commute to work outside the city. He described the city as part of a broader Tri-City labor market that includes Portsmouth, Dover and Somersworth.

On demographics, Gottlieb said communities with a higher share of rental housing tend to attract more residents aged 25 to 34; he pointed to rental housing and downtown amenities as factors that can help Rochester attract younger residents. "Where they go, where they choose to live, young people are the most mobile of any. They go, they move a lot," he said, urging the city to continue improving downtown amenities and housing quality.

Gottlieb offered to share his presentation with the council and provided his email for follow-up questions. "If you have questions about it, [the mayor] can give you my email address and I'd be happy to answer them," he said.

Why this matters: Rochester city officials heard a data-driven view that the city's labor-market position is relatively strong but that local wage growth and the resilience of manufacturing could be affected by broader trade and business-cycle forces. Councilors may use the presentation to guide workforce and economic-development priorities, and local employers and training partners may need to monitor manufacturing-sector developments closely.

Background: Gottlieb noted limits of city-level data and that some datasets he presented were roughly two years old; he cautioned that more current local measures may alter trend interpretation.