Wilsonville staff recommends OED 0.85% employment forecast for 20-year land needs; BLI finds 366 acres of unconstrained employment land

Wilsonville planning staff and consultant Echo Northwest presented the citywide portion of the Industrial Land Readiness project on Aug. 4, sharing a buildable lands inventory and a range of employment-growth scenarios meant to drive the Economic Opportunities Analysis (EOA). Staff recommended using the Oregon Employment Department (OED) forecast of 0.85% annual growth for the 2026–2046 planning horizon as a reasonable middle-ground scenario. The recommendation followed a discussion of local and regional trends and a planning commission review that found the methodology and preliminary findings reasonable.

The presentation summarized the BLI methodology and preliminary inventory: staff identified land designated for employment (commercial, industrial, town center and undesignated land planned for industrial uses), classified parcels as vacant, partially vacant or developed, and removed constrained areas such as floodways, mapped steep slopes (>15%), Title 3 streams, habitat conservation areas and significant resource overlay zones. After constraints were removed, the inventory showed about 366 acres of unconstrained buildable employment land in Wilsonville, with roughly 96% of that acreage designated industrial and concentrated in Coffee Creek and Basalt Creek in the northern part of the city.

Nicole Underwood of Echo Northwest explained economic and demographic trends that shaped the forecast: slowing labor-force growth and an aging population, automation and AI, rising construction costs and higher interest rates, and climate-related risks such as extreme heat and wildfire smoke. Local patterns matter too: Wilsonville’s industrial sector remains a core strength with low vacancy rates and rising rents, while office demand faces headwinds from hybrid work.

Forecast scenarios and land needs: Staff reviewed four scenarios for 2026–2046. Using a 2023 baseline total employment estimate of approximately 32,800 jobs (both covered and uncovered jobs), the scenarios produce different land needs: - Urban Growth Report (UGR) regional baseline (0.42% annual growth): ~2,900 new jobs over 20 years. - Oregon Employment Department forecast (0.85%): ~6,200 new jobs; staff recommended this scenario as realistic given short-term headwinds and the time needed to prepare industrial land for development. - Wilsonville’s historic growth (1.3%): ~7,700 new jobs; would require more proactive policy and infrastructure actions to achieve. - A household-based household-capacity scenario (HNCA): higher, described as optimistic and resource-intensive to achieve.

Under the OED 0.85% scenario, staff estimated the city would need about 439 acres of employment land over the next 20 years (roughly 327 acres industrial, 112 commercial). The historic-growth scenario would raise the need to roughly 540 acres. Staff also noted commercial land vacancy is limited (about 13 acres of vacant unconstrained commercial land) but that redevelopment and reuse of existing large vacant buildings and town-center redevelopment could help meet commercial needs.

Council responses: Councilors expressed general support for the OED 0.85% forecast as a conservative but actionable middle ground. Council discussion emphasized uncertainties such as labor supply constraints, inflation and interest rates, and infrastructure readiness. Staff described next steps: stakeholder interviews, finalizing the employment forecast and land sufficiency analysis, a site suitability analysis, and a late-fall return with a full EOA draft and an economic development strategy for council consideration.

Ending: The city will refine the EOA materials and return to council with a full draft later in the year; council will then select a preferred scenario that will guide zoning, infrastructure planning and redevelopment strategy.