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Forecast office flags payroll-expense tax volatility, wide uncertainty around social housing tax estimate
Summary
Forecast staff told the council payroll-expense tax collections are highly sensitive to equity prices and restricted stock compensation, producing large swings across scenarios; the office also reported a preliminary social housing tax estimate with a wide range and substantial data limitations.
Forecast Office staff told the Forecast Council on Aug. 4 that payroll-expense tax collections are unusually volatile this cycle because a large share of compensation at major taxpayers is delivered as restricted stock units (RSUs) and other equity-linked pay. Staff said payroll-expense tax forecasts depend heavily on expected stock prices and analysts' outlooks for large companies.
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