Seattle forecast council concurs with August 2025 baseline revenue forecast

Seattle’s Economic and Revenue Forecast Council on Aug. 4 reviewed updated economic scenarios and recorded its concurrence with the Forecast Office’s recommendation to adopt the August 2025 baseline revenue forecast to inform the mayor’s proposed budget. Forecast staff presented baseline, pessimistic and optimistic scenarios and recommended the baseline as the official forecast.

The baseline matters because it sets the revenue assumptions for the mayor’s proposed budget and for the City Council’s subsequent review. Forecast staff told the council the baseline reflects an improved outlook since April but that material downside risk remains and that the pessimistic scenario now incorporates a recession.

Forecast Office staff summarized recent economic developments, including tariff-related volatility, weaker-than-expected employment data in the latest report, and recovery in equity markets since April. Staff said they used an average of two commercial US forecasts (S&P Global and Moody’s Analytics) to temper optimism and reduce downside risk to the city’s revenue outlook. Staff reported a current probability assignment of 50% baseline, 25% optimistic and 25% pessimistic. The office recommended the baseline; the council registered no objections and asked that the minutes record concurrence with the Forecast Office’s recommendation.

Council members and budget staff asked for additional detail on specific revenue lines and stressed the high uncertainty around the coming months. Forecast staff cautioned that near-term reports could shift the outlook and encouraged budget planners to recognize the possibility of downward revision between now and the final October forecast.

The meeting also noted timing: the Forecast Council is scheduled to provide a final revenue update Oct. 20, 2025, which will establish the total resources available for the City Council’s appropriation decisions.