Demographer outlines cohort-survival enrollment study and timeline; possible school closures could be proposed by November

The Sachem Board of Education heard an update July 23 from demographer Ross Haber on a districtwide enrollment-projection and facilities-utilization study that will inform attendance-zone revisions and the feasibility of closing schools. Haber, the consultant the district hired, said the study uses the cohort-survival method approved by the New York State Education Department and will combine recent enrollment, state Department of Health birth data (by school district), and information about proposed housing developments to produce five- and ten-year projections by grade and school. Haber said the study’s objectives include determining classroom needs, program equity across buildings and whether attendance-zone changes or school closures are feasible. He emphasized the elementary grades are the project’s critical starting point because elementary enrollment drives future middle- and high-school rolls, but he said the analysis will cover preK–12 and will show how elementary changes would cascade to middle and high schools. Board members pressed Haber on data: Meredith asked whether the numbers shown in sample maps were actual counts; Haber said sample maps contained example figures and that the team had not yet completed the 2025–26 enrollment processing. He told the board the team had processed 2024–25 data and would incorporate 2025–26 enrollments now received. Haber described next steps and milestones: on-site elementary school walkthroughs Aug. 5 and 7; initial enrollment and utilization analysis by Aug. 31; school site visits and utilization tables by Sept. 30; proposed boundary and closure recommendations by November; and a final report by Dec. 15. Haber explained how the study will treat new housing by collecting development lists from municipal governments, counting unit and bedroom mixes and applying standard yield formulas to estimate likely children per unit over time. He also said the analysis will identify out-of-zone students and coordinate with the district’s special-services office to understand program-driven placements. Why this matters: The projections will inform possible redistricting or school-closure recommendations that would affect student assignments, transportation, facility costs and programming. Haber said the intent is to give the board time to review proposals well before the 2026 school year so logistics such as transportation and staffing can be planned in advance. Status and limitations: Haber repeatedly cautioned that sample maps and example counts presented during the meeting were for process demonstration only and not final figures. He said some data cleaning remains — he estimated a small number of address mismatches in a roughly 10,000-student dataset — and described the study as data-driven, with any recommendations contingent on the refined 2025–26 enrollments and on feedback from school visits and administration. Board next steps: The consultant will return with updated analyses; board members asked for iterative discussions so the board can guide which redistricting options to evaluate (for example, least disruptive cost-saving plans versus full optimization over 5–10 years). Haber said he will provide the board with the punctual deliverables and be in the district for the August school walkthroughs.