Regional mobility plan update: model tweaks and large revenue shortfall reshape cost‑feasible plan

Consultants and staff told the CRTPA on June 16 that modeling refinements and updated revenue forecasts have dramatically reduced the region’s projected available state and federal funds, forcing the agency to narrow the cost‑feasible long‑range plan. Franco Saracino, principal at Kittleson and Associates, and Hector Castro (CRTPA staff) reported that the project prioritization phase is underway and that staff will return with a draft cost‑feasible plan for adoption in November. Franco said the project list for top priorities—Crawfordville Road, Orange Avenue, Pensacola Road and Woodville Highway—amounts to roughly $400,000,000 in present‑day project costs for those top boxes alone. He said Orange Avenue was estimated at about $118,000,000 and Woodville about $75,000,000; Crawfordville was presented in the discussion at roughly $170,000,000. Franco and Hector told the board that FDOT revenue forecast corrections have reduced expected "other roads" program funding from nearly $700,000,000 in the previous plan to about $73,000,000 for the plan period; total state and federal revenues projected in the 2050 plan were discussed at about $287,000,000 (inflated dollars). The presenters concluded that the region faces a shortfall on the order of $500,000,000 compared with the present‑day costs of the top priority projects and that when inflation and project timing are accounted for, the funding gap will grow. The consultants described modeling work to produce an existing‑plus‑committed (E+C) network and a future cost‑feasible scenario, and they noted data and modeling issues that still need resolution (for example, how certain additions such as Waiolani Boulevard are represented in the districtwide model). Staff also said there were technical problems with the second community survey on some Apple devices and that response counts stood at roughly 250 so far; the earlier survey had about 900 responses. Staff extended the survey to June 23 to collect more responses and said they may conduct an additional outreach round if budget allows. Commissioner Minor asked whether the statewide revenue correction was unique to this district; consultants and staff said most MPOs are seeing similar downward adjustments from FDOT central forecasts. Board members pressed for clarity on the public survey’s usability; one commissioner said usability problems were raised and asked staff to pursue improvements and to re‑promote the survey to ensure broader participation before the June 23 cutoff. Franco said the next steps are to prioritize projects using the adopted scoring weights, assemble the cost‑feasible network (likely including only two or three top projects given revenue constraints), hold a third round of public engagement and return to the board for plan adoption in November.