The Pennsylvania Economy League told the Boyertown Area School District Board of School Directors on July 20 that preliminary enrollment projections show roughly stable district enrollment around 6,100 students over the next decade but that final numbers will change once municipal housing data are received. The presentation outlined the methodology and drivers behind the forecast and said the firm will return with a final report within about a month.

The consultant, Vinny Cannizzaro, executive director of the Pennsylvania Economy League, said his nonprofit uses demographic trends, housing construction, birth counts and historical grade-to-grade progression ratios to model likely enrollments. "We look at population, housing, trends in birth, migration, enrollment progressions," Cannizzaro said during the presentation. He and Patty Moorhead, the league's director of financial and data analysis, said the firm uses three-year average progression ratios to smooth out year-to-year irregularities and produces a range of projections bounded by higher- and lower-growth scenarios.

The nut graf: The consultants said population and housing in much of the district's municipalities have grown, driven mainly by in-migration to areas such as New Hanover Township, but that the growth has been concentrated in adults (age 18 and over). That pattern — more housing units but fewer children per household — has reduced students per housing unit and limited enrollment growth despite overall population increases.

Key details presented to the board included: enrollment declined by 629 students over the last 10 years; the ratio of students per 100 housing units fell from about 80 in 1970 to about 32 in 2023; kindergarten enrollment has been lower than the number of seniors graduating in recent years, possibly related to the district's half-day kindergarten; and grade-cohort trends show modest recent upticks in K–5 in later years of the projection. Cannizzaro noted the district's historical projection accuracy and said the industry standard error is about plus-or-minus 5 percent, while his group has typically been within about 1 percent.

Board members asked about how charter, parochial and cyber enrollments and special-education placements are treated. Cannizzaro said the projections use the district's historic enrollment and progression data, so students who historically dis-enroll for charter or other options are reflected in the grade-progression ratios; special-education placements that remain counted in district enrollment are included.

The consultants emphasized that housing development data from municipalities remains outstanding and could move the projection lines. They said that, once municipal housing and updated enrollment files are incorporated, they expect to return with final enrollment and projection tables and school-level forecasts.

The presentation was informational; the board did not take formal action on the study at the meeting.