The King County Budget Committee voted to adopt the county’s July revenue forecast, including estimates that reflect a 2025 state sales-tax base expansion that materially raises sales-tax projections for the next biennium.

Chief economist Elizabeth Martin Bahar presented the forecast and the committee approved Motion 202503 adopting the forecast. "I'm Elizabeth Martin Bahar, chief economist for King County. So I'm gonna present you the overview today," she said before delivering the July forecast summary.

The nut graf: The July forecast shows a small downward revision to 2025 revenue but a substantially stronger outlook in the 2026–27 biennium because the forecast baseline includes the 2025 expanded sales-tax base. County staff told the committee that without the 2025 legislation the outlook would be weaker than the March forecast; with the legislation, sales-tax receipts rise enough to move the July forecast above March for most out years.

Key facts and figures

- The July forecast shows a modest downward revision for 2025: a decline of about $9.4 million in change-in-revenue measures and roughly $2.5 million down on the general fund for 2025 compared with the March forecast.

- For the next biennium (2026–27) the forecast increases sales-tax revenue by about $156.6 million compared with the March forecast; county staff said the expanded sales-tax base accounts for roughly $96 million of additional revenue in each year of that biennium. The forecasters reported a roughly $26 million increase to the general fund over the next biennium tied to the legislation.

- Staff noted other revenue sources have weakened relative to March forecasts: gambling tax, lodging (hotel) tax, rental-car tax, cannabis revenue and penalties and interest were below prior expectations. Some categories—911/dispatch, lodging taxes and document fees—were revised slightly upward.

What was included in the baseline

Bahar told the committee the July baseline includes the 2025 sales-tax base expansion (described in the presentation as the expanded base sales substitute bill). She said a separate bill that would allow a 0.1 percentage-point criminal-justice sales tax is not included in the baseline. "When I say sales tax less 2025 legislation, that is just the expanded base," she said.

Economic context discussed

Bahar summarized national and local indicators: U.S. real GDP had weaker-than-expected growth in early 2025, household and consumer measures showed mixed signals, taxable sales growth in King County was weak (about 0.5% year‑over‑year), and employment showed negative year‑over‑year growth for 2025 at about -0.2%. Inflation measures were tracking below earlier March expectations but showed signs of a recent uptick.

She also discussed tariff developments and their uncertain effects on trade and prices, and said the forecast team provided alternative scenarios (including a recession scenario) in supplemental materials.

Committee action and vote

Committee Chair Rod Dembowski put the item before the committee for consideration and a committee member moved adoption. The committee conducted a roll-call vote. The clerk recorded three "aye" votes from Council member Dively, Council member Mosqueda and Sheridan Vaske; Executive Braddock was recorded as excused. The committee chair announced the motion approved.

Votes at a glance

- Motion 202503 — "Adopt revenue forecast for 2025 and beyond" — Outcome: approved; recorded tally: 3 ayes (Dively, Mosqueda, Vaske); Executive Braddock excused.

Committee discussion

Council member Teresa Mosqueda thanked the revenue team for advance briefings and said she would support adoption. "Just wanted to echo my appreciation and, thank, the revenue team for their willingness to meet with us for some questions ahead of time," Mosqueda said during consideration.

Forward-looking notes and materials

Bahar said the county will publish the next forecast in December and that the Office of Economic and Financial Analysis (OEFA) will continue to issue monthly revenue memos and an "econ pulse" summarizing new data. She also said staff will circulate supplemental reports referenced in the presentation, including an alternative-forecast package and updates on property-tax and construction estimates.

Ending

With no further business, the Budget Committee adjourned after adopting the July revenue forecast.