Whatcom County consultants project up to 600 beds by 2050; design‑builder selection moves toward contract

A consultant for the county’s jail project told the Whatcom County Incarceration Prevention and Reduction Task Force on July 28 that a time‑series forecast used in a preliminary rated‑bed capacity analysis projects roughly 600 beds by 2050 and about 560 beds under a commonly used 80% operating guideline.

The analysis, presented by Adam (STV consultant), said the firm DLZ used a time‑series model that draws on local jail admissions, average daily population and average length of stay, and county population growth. Adam said the county’s population could exceed 300,000 by 2050 and that average length of stay is the single biggest driver of bed need: "If you can get people in and out quicker, then you're gonna need less beds overall," he said.

Why it matters

The projection matters for design, utilities and operations: the project team is preparing to contract with a selected design‑builder in August, and early planning choices—such as kitchen and laundry sizing—affect whether the facility can expand later. County staff and consultants said they intend to size infrastructure to allow staged expansion without building an oversized staffed facility immediately.

Key details from the presentation

- Method and scope: DLZ used a time‑series forecast favored by the consultant team for rated‑bed analyses.…