Consultants retained by Saint Louis Public Schools (SLPS) presented a master-planning update at the July 22 work session that combined a facilities condition assessment, demographic forecasts and tornado-impact modeling. The team said SLPS operates 68 schools in 79 buildings with an average building age of roughly 79 years and estimated cumulative reserve costs (the cost of systems that have reached or exceeded expected lifespans) of about $1.84 billion over a 20-year planning horizon.

The presentation outlined damage from the May 16, 2025 tornado that directly affected 12 schools and created a buffer area of additional impact. Consultants presented low- and high-impact scenarios and said their high-impact projection would result in approximately 2,000 fewer students districtwide for the 2025–26 school year — a reduction the team said would be additive to preexisting demographic declines in the city. The consultants explained that the district's total enrollment for 2024–25 was about 18,122 and that the systemwide utilization rate is roughly 52.4 percent (about one in two seats vacant).

As part of scenario planning tied to community input — including repeated requests to maintain smaller classroom sizes — the consultants modeled target class-size and utilization metrics (PK–2: 17 students per class; grades 3–5: 20; grades 6–8: 23; grades 9–12: 25). Applying those targets and projected enrollments, the team said SLPS could be served by 31 facilities in the modeled future scenario, implying a surplus of 37 buildings relative to current inventory. The consultant team estimated reserve-cost savings from right-sizing occupied facilities at roughly $182 million through the planning horizon cited in the report, noting that the larger $1.84 billion figure represents longer-term costs across all 68 schools.

Consultants explained key technical terms used in the study: current replacement value (CRV) as a square-footage-based valuation for existing buildings; facility condition index (FCI, a percentage of repair cost vs. replacement cost with an industry target under 30 percent); and reserve costs (costs for systems — roofs, mechanicals, and the like — that have reached the end of expected useful life). They said the district commissioned more than 10,600 observations across 6.54 million square feet of building stock and that the near-term immediate needs identified included debris cleanup, emergency stabilization, environmental testing, and urgent repairs to seven tornado-damaged buildings.

The consultants also summarized financial implications of the tornado response and other unplanned expenses: immediate debris cleanup (~$96,000), immediate recovery stabilization (~$1.2 million), insurance deductibles (~$2.35 million), capital assets (about $3.7 million for items such as laptops) and other repairs; they said FEMA and the state emergency management agency (SEMA) are expected to reimburse a portion of costs (FEMA approximately 75 percent in the consultant estimate, and state reimbursement figures discussed), but the district must front initial expense out of its fund balance. The team warned that continued use of fund balance to cover unplanned repairs could reduce the fund balance toward the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) 3 percent guideline by 2030 if not addressed.

Board members and consultants discussed data accuracy and public sharing of dashboards. A board member flagged calculation issues in the public-facing dashboards and asked that the full facility-condition and demographic dashboards for all 68 schools be posted prominently on the SLPS website; the consultants agreed to post and correct items and to update dashboards after September enrollment data are released. Consultants said they had conducted extensive community engagement (a dozen meetings) and would next refine recommendations; they emphasized that the report and scenarios are data-driven analyses, not board recommendations.

Several board members stressed the emotional and community impacts of possible school closures and urged that any decisions proceed methodically with broad local engagement. Consultants and district leaders said right-sizing and targeted reinvestment could free up funds to repair and modernize fewer, better-served facilities, and offered examples of repurposing older school buildings for housing or community uses in other jurisdictions. The district said it will continue to coordinate with city leaders and FEMA/SEMA on recovery and with community groups on neighborhood redevelopment.

The board asked for further materials, including the demographic model variants used for projections, corrected dashboards, and clearer spreadsheets to explain household and school-capture calculations; the consultants agreed to provide those items for follow-up and future board consideration.