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Legislative fiscal analysts present oil-and-gas revenue downturn scenarios that could cut biennial receipts by up to $1.1 billion
Summary
Legislative Council analysts presented two oil-and-gas scenarios to Legislative Management: a 13% production decline and a combined 13% production plus 15% price decline. The larger scenario could reduce state oil-and-gas allocations by around $1.1 billion over the biennium and affect multiple state funds.
Legislative Council fiscal staff told Legislative Management on June 26 that an extended decline in North Dakota oil production and a drop in oil prices could materially reduce state oil-and-gas tax allocations.
Adam Matiek, a Legislative Council fiscal analyst, presented two alternate scenarios based primarily on low-case data from S&P Global: one assuming a 13% decline in production, and a second combining the 13% production decline with a 15% drop in price. He said the combined scenario could reduce allocations by roughly $1.1 billion across the biennium and noted knock-on effects for the Resources Trust Fund, political subdivisions, State…
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