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Legislative fiscal staff outline oil-and-gas revenue scenarios that could cut state allocations by hundreds of millions
Summary
Legislative fiscal analysts presented two downside scenarios—one focused on a production decline and a second combining lower production and lower prices—that could reduce state oil-and-gas allocations by roughly $570 million and $1.1 billion respectively across the 2025–27 biennium, affecting major funds and some planned transfers.
Legislative fiscal analysts warned Legislative Management that a sustained decline in North Dakota oil production or a combined drop in production and price could reduce oil-and-gas tax allocations by hundreds of millions of dollars over the 2025–27 biennium, with knock-on effects for multiple state funds and political subdivisions.
Adam Matiek, legislative counsel fiscal analyst, presented two alternate scenarios based on S&P Global’s low-case material and internal adjustments. The first scenario models a 13% decline in production—about a fall from roughly 1.15 million barrels per day to about 1.0 million—resulting in approximately a $570 million reduction in oil-and-gas tax allocations over the biennium. The second scenario pairs the 13% production decline with a 15% drop in price (roughly…
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