The Planning and Programming Committee of the Northern Virginia Transportation Authority voted Nov. 21 to endorse sending the TransAction long-range plan update to the Authority for adoption at its Dec. 8 meeting.

The recommendation backs a TransAction project list that staff said includes 424 projects (down from 429 in the last draft), with an estimated total project cost of about $75,000,000,000 and roughly $44.5 billion in transit-related projects. Staff said the subset of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) and other high-capacity transit in the list accounts for about $10,000,000,000 of that transit total. Committee members voted by voice to recommend approval; the chair announced “the ayes have it.”

TransAction is a fiscally unconstrained regional needs assessment and eligibility list, not a funding commitment. Presenter Keith (NVTA planning staff) told the committee the plan follows the Code of Virginia and that inclusion on the TransAction list makes projects initially eligible for future NVTA funding cycles but does not itself authorize funding. “It is always completely understood that inclusion of projects in the TransAction project list is not a funding commitment on the part of NVTA,” Keith said.

Committee discussion focused on three recurring issues: the plan’s scale and costs, greenhouse gas (GHG) and emissions projections, and next steps for regional BRT planning. Staff explained they removed three duplicate projects and transferred two projects from the build list into the baseline (no-build) because those two are now under construction or fully funded; those five changes reduced the project count from 429 to 424 and lowered the aggregated cost by nearly $1 billion from the prior draft. Staff cautioned that all project costs are approximate.

On emissions, staff said earlier draft figures included a “best case” scenario indicating as much as a 54% reduction under optimistic electrification assumptions and a “worst case” scenario showing about a 1.7% increase; the revised materials omit the best-case graphic and now present the more conservative outcome. “In reality, what will happen will depend upon how the region progresses with electrification of the system,” Keith said, adding that actual results will likely fall between the scenarios.

Committee members pressed staff to make clearer how the TransAction project list and its modeling relate to regional GHG goals. Council Member Snyder said the region should better explain how projects in the list could be sequenced or paired with supporting investments to produce measurable emissions reductions. Staff and several committee members pointed to the proposed regional BRT preliminary deployment plan as a near-term action that could help align project selection with emissions and other regional objectives.

On BRT, staff described prior NVTA investments in five BRT lines and said the proposed FY2024 operations budget would include funds for a regional BRT preliminary deployment plan if the Authority approves the budget. Staff projected that, if funded, the preliminary deployment plan would substantially report by the first quarter of calendar year 2025—ahead of the anticipated May 2025 call for projects for the FY2026–31 six-year program—providing jurisdictions with additional technical guidance when they prepare funding requests.

Multiple members urged the committee and staff to be more explicit in the TransAction document about how its projects could advance safety, equity and environmental goals if implemented strategically. Staff acknowledged that TransAction is an “unconstrained” needs-based list and said the Authority’s future prioritization and programming decisions will determine which projects are funded.

Formally, Mayor Rishel moved to endorse the recommendation to adopt the TransAction update and Chair Wheeler seconded; the committee approved the motion by voice vote. The committee also approved October 3 summary notes earlier in the meeting.

The committee’s endorsement sends TransAction to the full Authority for consideration at its Dec. 8 meeting. Staff told members they will bring clarifications requested during the Nov. 21 discussion back to the committee and the Authority as part of the record prior to the Dec. 8 vote.

The meeting concluded with a brief NVTA staff update on the 2023 legislative program and staff appreciation remarks.