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Arkansas May revenue collections fall below year-ago levels; officials say surplus likely
Summary
State officials reported May gross general revenues of about $7.4 billion, roughly $372.7 million (4.8%) below the same point last year; revised forecasts and upcoming large collection days make a small surplus likely, state finance officials said.
Carlos Silva, senior economist at the Bureau of Legislative Research, told the Arkansas Legislative Council on June 19 that gross general revenue collections through May totaled about $7,400,000,000, roughly $372,700,000 (4.8%) below the same point a year earlier. Silva said net general revenues available for distribution were about $5,900,000,000, roughly $244,000,000 (4%) below last year’s level.
The revenue picture has improved relative to the most recent forecast, Silva said, and there are “a lot of important days coming in for collections in the end of the month.” He told members the agency’s preliminary numbers suggested the state could meet its Revenue Stabilization Act benchmark in the coming days.
Why it matters: The state’s fund balance and budget choices for the coming year hinge on final June collections. Lawmakers and staff said a surplus would affect decisions about transfers and one-time appropriations heading into the next fiscal year.
During questions, Representative Meeks asked whether the state was likely to finish the fiscal year with a surplus. Silva said the amount of surplus would depend on collections over the next several days and that the state could be “pretty close to the revenue forecast” if collections continue as they had to that point.
Jim Hudson, secretary of the Department of Finance and Administration, corrected an earlier statement about a tax-deadline change and clarified the filing extension: “It was extended to July 31, not September 15.” He said the department’s revised forecast already accounted for that extension and that the forecast projected a surplus of about $215,000,000; current collections were roughly $17 million above the forecast, Hudson said.
Hudson added that because the revised forecast already assumed the filing-extension effects, the department was monitoring how much estimated-tax payments and other receipts would shift from late June into July — a shift that would move some revenue into the next fiscal year.
Silva also detailed the monthly and special-revenue breakdowns in the packet and offered to answer further questions; members had none. The council received the report and moved on to committee business.
Looking ahead: Officials said final June collections and a handful of large remittance days would determine the final surplus amount and whether any additional transfers or one-time appropriations were advisable before the next regular session.
