Arkansas presentation shows mixed short-term return on investment across college programs

Ken Morton, Commissioner of the Arkansas Division of Higher Education, told the Arkansas Legislature's Education Committee that the division's analysis of 2015 graduates shows wide variation in how long different college programs take to "pay for themselves." Morton said the analysis compares post-completion median earnings to the costs of attendance and the wages students forewent while studying.

Morton said the division used Arkansas's state longitudinal data system and wage matches to measure only graduates the state could account for: "This is not fuzzy math. These are students that we can account for." He described declines in public confidence in higher education and said cost, relevance of skills and perceived political agendas drive skepticism.

The presentation showed examples by program category (2-digit CIP). In one example Morton presented, an associate degree cost roughly $40,000 and a bachelor's degree about $100,000; the associate-degree cohort reached a cumulative earnings breakeven in about 1.86 years, and the bachelor's cohort in about 2.24 years. Morton said an example for education majors showed a two-year education credential did not earn more than a high school graduate over eight years, while a four-year education degree paid for itself in about 4.42 years.

Morton emphasized methodological limits: the analysis included only Arkansas public-institution graduates for whom the division could match Social Security numbers to in-state employment records; students who left the state or whose records could not be matched were excluded. He said the division measured degree categories at the 2-digit CIP level to avoid small-sample and disclosure issues and used median wages to reduce outlier effects.

Committee members asked how the information is shared with students and schools. Morton said statute requires institutions to provide an economic-security report to applicants and that the Department of Commerce hosts a public dashboard; he added that, in his view, students "are probably not reading" the reports in current form and urged simplification and better dissemination. He said statute since 2017 requires institutions to deliver the economic-security information to students when they apply.

Morton also described next steps: the division will expand the dataset this year to include technical certificates and certificates of proficiency, and next year to include short-term non-degree credentials; the division expects to add a ninth year of post-graduation wage data in the coming fall. He said the Access Act directs the division to "embed an R.L.I. metric in the current funding formula" to reflect return-on-investment considerations for taxpayer-funded programs.

Questions from committee members touched on which fields are high-demand or high-wage, how many degree earners leave Arkansas for work, whether the reports are accessible to campus advisors and high school counselors, and whether private career schools will be measured. Morton said the division will begin collecting data from private career programs that receive state scholarship dollars and that the division can provide more detailed lists and wage-match counts on request.

The committee did not vote on any action related to the presentation; Morton's briefing was informational and committee members asked for follow-up materials and expanded data.