DRCOG staff: land use alone won’t substantially reduce driving; combined transit and complete-streets strategies matter

Alvin Bridal Sanchez, a DRCOG staff member, told the Denver Regional Council of Governments Board of Directors on July 2 that scenario modeling for the 2050 regional transportation plan shows “land use is not the primary driver of mobility changes” and that transportation strategies combined with land use changes produce the largest shifts in travel patterns.

The presentation summarized three transportation scenarios and one land-use scenario and compared each to the adopted 2050 regional transportation plan (RTP) and current land use forecasts from the Colorado Department of Local Affairs. Sanchez said the region’s latest forecast assumes about 800,000 additional residents by 2050 and slower growth than earlier projections.

The board was shown three primary mobility measures: vehicle miles traveled (VMT), vehicle hours of delay, and transit/walk/bike trips. Under the RTP with current land use, DRCOG staff expect VMT to rise roughly 25 percent and vehicle hours of delay about 54 percent by 2050. The transit/walk/bike measure is forecast to increase about 41 percent.

Sanchez described the scenarios as follows: a “complete streets” scenario that adds bicycle and pedestrian infrastructure, assumes more e-bikes…