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Missoula hydrology outlook: good reservoir storage but Blackfoot Basin remains extremely dry
Summary
Leanne Allegretto, hydrologist at the National Weather Service Missoula office, told the LEPC that overall snowpack and reservoir storage are near or above normal for much of the region but the Blackfoot Basin remains well below normal, and the outlook through June trends toward warmer and drier conditions.
Leanne Allegretto, hydrologist with the National Weather Service’s Missoula office, briefed the LEPC on the local weather and water outlook and highlighted an uneven recovery: most basins near Missoula have near‑normal or above‑normal snowpack and reservoirs, but the Blackfoot Basin remains significantly below normal.
Allegretto said 7‑ to 10‑day forecasts show a typical spring “roller coaster” of warming and cooling and that one‑month outlooks show a neutral pattern rather than a strong El Niño or La Niña. She said the long‑lead seasonal signature tends toward warmer and drier conditions in June and July, which could influence fire season if temperatures and precipitation patterns align unfavorably.
On rivers and snowpack, Allegretto said the Upper and Lower Clark Fork basins and river valley are about 90% of normal, and storage in reservoirs is above 100% of normal. She said the Blackfoot Basin and headwaters are “below 20% of normal for this time of year” and remain in an extreme drought category; she is coordinating with drought committees in Idaho and Montana.
Allegretto said she will issue updated flood outlooks and that May melt rates will be “super crucial” to how the season develops. She declined to predict fire season, saying that an early June warm, dry trend could raise risk but outcomes will depend on weather in coming weeks.
Ending: The NWS hydrologist encouraged agencies to call the Missoula office for timely weather and water information and committed to distributing a follow‑up flood outlook in April.
