Helsinki Commission hearing: witnesses warn a ‘‘bad peace’’ in Ukraine would embolden Russia and threaten Moldova, Armenia and Georgia

Sen. Roger Wicker, chair of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (U.S. Helsinki Commission), opened a hearing saying "it is Ukrainians themselves who will overwhelmingly bear the cost of a peace deal that rewards Russian aggression." Witnesses and members of Congress echoed that view, warning that a negotiated settlement that legitimizes Russian gains would threaten nearby democracies in Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus.

Michael Cecciri, identified in the hearing as a defense and security policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, Nerces Kopalian, Assistant Professor in Residence of Political Science at the University of Nevada, and Hannah Ljubakova, a Belarusian journalist in exile and non‑resident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, told the commission a ‘‘bad peace’’ could create enduring, Russia‑dominated frozen conflicts and expand Moscow’s leverage across the region.

"A bad peace allows Moscow to have both leverage and a controlling stake in a process where the peace process is utilized to advance their interest at the expense of everyone else involved," Kopalian said, contrasting ‘‘bad peace’’ built on coercion with what he described as sustainable, enforceable settlements. Witnesses argued that a Russia‑favored settlement would undercut recent democratic reforms in Moldova and Armenia, embolden pro‑Kremlin actors in Georgia, and deepen Russian control over Belarus.

Witnesses also linked Russian gains to broader strategic consequences. Cecciri said a Russian victory could allow Moscow to redirect hybrid operations and military power across the Black Sea region and beyond, and Kopalian warned it could free resources for renewed aggression. Several witnesses noted China's growing economic role in the region and suggested a Moscow‑friendly outcome in Ukraine would expand Beijing’s influence.

Lawmakers from both parties pressed for policy responses during the hearing. Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse described U.S. tools to curtail illicit finance — including the Corporate Transparency Act and targeted sanctions — and urged renewed enforcement and interagency coordination. Witnesses highlighted enforcement of existing sanctions and transparency measures, continued military assistance for Ukraine, and sustained diplomatic engagement with Moldova, Armenia and Georgia as central to preventing what they called a harmful settlement.

Members of the commission asked witnesses how to assess the attitudes of populations in occupied areas and how to judge whether a peace would be durable. Witnesses replied that occupation skews demographics and administration of local institutions — including schools and passport policies — and that historical precedents (for example, mass uprisings in Armenia and Euromaidan in Ukraine) show public sentiment can be pro‑sovereignty even in Russian‑speaking areas.

The hearing did not produce formal actions or votes; commissioners concluded by thanking staff and adjourning. Testimony and exchanges focused on the strategic risks of accepting Russian territorial gains, the importance of transparent enforcement tools, and continued U.S. support for partners in the region.