Legislative Council fiscal staff told Legislative Management that alternate oil-and-gas scenarios based on S&P Global low-case inputs could reduce state allocations by several hundred million dollars to more than $1 billion over the next biennium.

Adam Mateuk, the Council’s fiscal analyst, presented a “lower production” scenario that assumed roughly a 13% drop in North Dakota oil production (about 150,000 barrels per day) and showed an approximate $570 million reduction versus the legislative forecast; the losses would be felt across the state’s sequential “buckets,” including a nearly $200 million decrease in the SIF bucket and roughly $50 million less for the Resources Trust Fund. "The buckets, as they're called, are largely affecting SIF," Mateuk said, noting that available cash on hand moderates immediate impacts but would reduce resources available in subsequent biennia.

A second scenario combined the 13% production decline with a 15% reduction in the North Dakota oil price (about a $9 per-barrel discount relative to the forecast) — a roughly $1.1 billion total reduction in allocations under that scenario. Mateuk said that scenario would eliminate funding to some buckets completely and remove a planned $65 million transfer intended to pay down the PERS main system unfunded liability; it would also reduce airport infrastructure and political subdivision allocations and lower prairie dog mitigation buckets.

Staff said the scenarios drew on the low-case material S&P Global provided for the March forecast; they made small, conservative rounding adjustments for modeling clarity and recommended monitoring updated S&P and Moody’s forecasts. Members asked about timing and the process to access the Budget Stabilization Fund during a downturn; staff and agency representatives explained the governor’s allotment process, transfers from the fund, and how legislative action could be required to direct targeted adjustments.

Lawmakers asked for more frequent forecasting amid volatile market conditions; staff said contract timing with S&P Global is under discussion but recommended earlier interim updates (January–March) to better monitor risk. The committee asked fiscal staff to continue tracking scenarios and provide updates.