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Fiscal staff outline downside oil-and-gas scenarios that would cut state allocations by up to $1.1 billion
Summary
Legislative Council fiscal analysts presented two modeled scenarios — lower production alone and lower production combined with lower prices — showing potential reductions in biennial oil-and-gas tax allocations ranging from about $570 million to $1.1 billion and identified which state funds would be most affected.
Legislative Council fiscal staff told Legislative Management that alternate oil-and-gas scenarios based on S&P Global low-case inputs could reduce state allocations by several hundred million dollars to more than $1 billion over the next biennium.
Adam Mateuk, the Council’s fiscal analyst, presented a “lower production” scenario that assumed roughly a 13% drop in North Dakota oil production (about 150,000 barrels per day) and showed an approximate $570 million reduction versus the legislative forecast; the losses would be felt across the state’s sequential…
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