Helsinki Commission: "Bad peace" in Ukraine would embolden Kremlin, threaten Moldova, Belarus, Georgia and Armenia

Sen. Roger Wicker, chair of the Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe (the U.S. Helsinki Commission), opened the hearing by warning that "it is Ukrainians themselves who will overwhelmingly bear the cost of a peace deal that rewards Russian aggression." He said witnesses would focus on the regional implications if Russia secures territorial or political gains in Ukraine.

The commission convened a panel of experts who told members that a peace that legitimizes Russian occupation would create a cascade of strategic, political and humanitarian harms across Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. Michael Cecciri, identified in the hearing as a defense and security policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, said Moldova’s reforms and EU candidate status are vulnerable if Russia gains contiguous access through Ukraine and Transnistria. "Moldova is becoming a success story," Cecciri said, but he warned a Russian victory would provide Moscow contiguous access to Transnistria and "could also play a more overt role in other vulnerable regions of Moldova."

Dr. Kopalian, introduced as an assistant professor in residence of political science at the University of Nevada, framed the risk to the South Caucasus similarly: a coercive peace would allow Russia to freeze conflicts in its favor and later…