Pasco School District study session: economists project modest K–12 growth; community survey favors replacing aging schools

Eastern Washington University economists presented 10-year enrollment projections and district staff summarized a community facilities survey during a Pasco School District study session, reporting a likely net increase of roughly 400 to 600 students districtwide over the next decade and strong public interest in replacing aging school buildings.

The board heard the projections from Dr. Kelly Cullen and Dr. Patrick Jones of Eastern Washington University and a summary of survey results from district staff member Jake Sickle. Dr. Cullen said the team ran multiple forecasting methods and presented ranges rather than single-point estimates: "at a low end, your enrollments could be ... 8,800, almost 8,900. But at a high end, it could be as high as 9,200," referring to elementary-level totals in 2034–35. The presenters also summarized their best-fit models and sensitivity checks, and described an average outcome that would add hundreds of elementary students over the decade.

Why it matters: the district is developing a long-term facilities management plan tied to a series of bond packages. The survey of roughly 500 respondents showed the top community priorities were replacing old and outdated buildings and improving safety and security; respondents were divided between a…