Tumwater contracts Eco Northwest model to build 10-year financial scenario tool; council to test budget "what-if" packages

Consultant Morgan Shook of Eco Northwest told the Tumwater City Council on June 17, 2025, that the firm has constructed a 10-year financial projection tool for the city to test revenue and expenditure scenarios and support longer-range budget decisions.

"The heart of this is actually building a long range financial forecasting tool...that mimics the actual structure of the city," Shook said, describing a model built from departments up through funds that allows staff to add positions, vary pay, include capital projects and model revenue changes. The tool is Excel-based, he said, and intended to be updated during routine budget cycles.

Shook described a three-tier framework staff and departments are using to classify spending: core/required services, current community commitments (work the council has directed staff to do) and proposed enhanced services. The difference between available resources and the cost of current commitments is described in the presentation as a "shadow deficit." Shook said the model can show trade-offs and test funding options such as levies or rate changes.

Troy Neimeyer, the city's finance director, told the council the tool will be accessible to council members during budget discussions and that staff expect to use council input from a June 28 work session to build scenarios over the summer. "This is built on an Excel spreadsheet...so it's not proprietary software," Neimeyer said, adding that it will allow council members to manipulate scenarios during upcoming budget deliberations.

City administrators said the model will feed into the 2026 budget process and the biennial 2027-28 budget discussions. Shook and staff emphasized the planning tool is intended to increase transparency, help prioritize capital and service choices and test worst-case and best-case fiscal scenarios.

Council members asked about using the model for recruitment and pay-compression questions and were told the model can vary pay levels for individual positions and project those costs forward. Staff said they will present scenarios at work sessions through the summer and aim to incorporate council priorities into the fall budget cycle.