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Demographic study projects modest enrollment growth for CCSD 62; boundary review suggested as a long‑term option
Summary
District staff reviewed a John Casarda demographic study presenting three enrollment scenarios; the middle case projects modest growth over five and ten years and staff said the analysis supports the district’s full‑day kindergarten plans while noting local population turnover and newcomer flows.
District staff reviewed a demographic projection prepared by Dr. John Casarda that provides three enrollment scenarios for CCSD 62 and discussed implications for capacity planning and the district’s move to full‑day kindergarten.
The presenter outlined three scenarios in the report: series A (lower than anticipated) shows enrollment down about 289 students in five years and down about 307 in 10 years; series B (the middle scenario the presenter deemed most likely) projects an increase of about 153 students in five years and 249 students in 10 years; series C (higher than anticipated) projects increases of about 482 students in five years and 600 in 10 years. "Series B is probably the most accurate," the presenter said, while noting that net migration, housing turnover and newcomer populations drive much of the variability.
Staff said the study includes a 20‑year enrollment history, five‑ and ten‑year projections by school and grade, and community demographic context. The presenter noted that newcomer populations are not fully captured in the projections and that the district has seen cohorts of newcomers arrive and leave in recent years. Staff said the study supports the district’s planning for full‑day kindergarten and that boundary changes could be considered as a long‑term measure if enrollment trends warrant it.
Board members asked questions about local housing development and downtown residential changes. The presenter noted downtown development has focused on smaller units near transit and that city development plans will influence household types moving into the district. Staff recommended continued monitoring and re‑evaluating boundaries or capacity planning over a multi‑year horizon rather than immediate boundary changes.
