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Mackinac Center presentation warns net-zero paths can raise costs, risk blackouts; proposes nuclear and carbon-capture mix
Summary
Jason Hayes of the Mackinac Center told the House Energy Committee that some decarbonization pathways relying heavily on wind, solar and batteries could produce capacity shortfalls and higher costs, and described an alternative mix emphasizing nuclear and carbon capture that the Center’s modeling found would reduce shortfall risk and cost.
Jason Hayes of the Mackinac Center presented modeling previewing a forthcoming study on Michigan’s net-zero commitments and electricity reliability. He said the analysis modeled two scenarios: a wind/solar/battery (WSB) pathway and a lower-cost decarbonization (LCD) pathway that leans on carbon capture for existing fossil plants and new nuclear capacity.
Hayes said the analysis accounts for current state laws, including Public Act 235 of 2023 and Governor Whitmer’s net-zero goals. He told the committee the WSB scenario in the model required massive new build-out and carried an estimated price tag of “$360,000,000,000 through 2050,” and produced multiple capacity shortfalls in the modeling, with a maximum contiguous shortfall of “as much as 61 contiguous hours” during winter stress periods.
By contrast, Hayes said the LCD scenario — which extended the lives of some existing plants with carbon capture and added nuclear capacity (small modular reactors and larger units) — produced no modeled capacity shortfalls and the study’s modeled customer-bill increase averaged less than under the WSB scenario. Hayes summarized: the WSB scenario reduced emissions more but cost more and had reliability risk; the LCD scenario achieved similar CO2 reductions at lower modeled cost and without capacity shortfalls.
Committee members asked Hayes about market signals and regional capacity auctions; Hayes pointed to recent MISO auction results, saying reserve auction prices increased from about $30 per megawatt-day to about $666 per megawatt-day in a year, which he said indicates urgent need to build reliable capacity now.
Hayes also raised lifecycle and social-justice concerns tied to supply chains for batteries, solar panels and wind turbines, citing foreign production practices and resource extraction impacts; he urged policymakers to weigh reliability, affordability and environmental trade-offs before committing to an exclusively wind/solar/battery pathway.
The presentation ended with questions but no committee votes or decisions. Hayes said the Center’s full report would be published in the coming weeks.
