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Consultant: Tempe Union enrollment down roughly 2,000 students over 14 years; birth rates and smaller cohorts driving declines
Summary
A demographer told the Tempe City Council that Tempe Union High School District enrollment has declined substantially in recent years and that longer-term declines are being driven by lower birth rates and changing household age structure, limiting what new housing alone can do to reverse the trend.
Rick Brammer, the Applied Economics demographer who prepared the Tempe Union High School District’s 2024–25 demographic update, told the Tempe City Council on Wednesday that district enrollment has fallen and is likely to continue declining absent very long-term demographic shifts.
The presentation, delivered during the council’s work study session, said the district has lost “about 2,000 students” over the last 14 years, with roughly 2,700 fewer students living inside the district and about 600 gained through in‑migration from outside the district. “Two thousand students is what we like to think of as a high school,” Brammer said, stressing the fiscal and facility implications.
The report focused…
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