Consultant: Tempe Union enrollment down roughly 2,000 students over 14 years; birth rates and smaller cohorts driving declines

Rick Brammer, the Applied Economics demographer who prepared the Tempe Union High School District’s 2024–25 demographic update, told the Tempe City Council on Wednesday that district enrollment has fallen and is likely to continue declining absent very long-term demographic shifts.

The presentation, delivered during the council’s work study session, said the district has lost “about 2,000 students” over the last 14 years, with roughly 2,700 fewer students living inside the district and about 600 gained through in‑migration from outside the district. “Two thousand students is what we like to think of as a high school,” Brammer said, stressing the fiscal and facility implications.

The report focused on three drivers: changing local age structure, lower birth rates statewide and the growing role of alternative education delivery. Brammer said Arizona birth counts fell sharply during and after the Great Recession and have not recovered to earlier levels, and he called that “the big elephant in the room.” He warned the effects will continue to ripple through the grades and into high school enrollment in the next five years.

City staff framed the presentation as part of a regional planning partnership. Wydell Holmes, director of the city’s Strategic Management and Innovation Office, introduced Brammer and said the City of Tempe is trying to align housing, development and family‑friendly services with school enrollment trends. Deputy City Manager Keith Burke and council members stressed existing city efforts — including the Thrive in Tempe partnership with Arizona State University and others — to coordinate recruitment and support for families with school‑age children.

Brammer reviewed neighborhood‑level patterns showing which attendance‑area blocks have lost or gained students in recent years and noted that most near‑term housing growth planned for Tempe is multifamily construction, which historically attracts fewer school‑age children than new single‑family housing. He summarized the district prognosis: enrollment could fall below 10,000 students during the projection period from roughly 12,000 now and the decline is driven primarily by “smaller classes coming forward” rather than by a sudden increase in charter or private school share.

Council members asked for regular updates and staff said they would continue to coordinate with school districts, housing and workforce partners to identify actions the city can take to support families and district enrollment.

The presentation included neighborhood maps, cohort charts and a review of services‑rate changes over time; Brammer recommended continuing city efforts that make Tempe affordable and family‑friendly, including childcare and housing supports, without suggesting any single policy guaranteed to reverse long‑term demographic trends.