Caltrans analysis says Clipper system errors drove most November fare shortfalls; SolTrans to press MTC for reimbursement

Caltrans analysts told the SolTrans board on June 2025 that most of the agency’s recent Clipper fare‑revenue shortfalls were caused by failures in the Clipper back end that left route information blank, producing lower (local) fares instead of higher express fares.

At a public meeting presentation, Evan Siroki, transit data quality branch manager in the Division of Data and Digital Services at Caltrans, summarized the investigation and the data sources used. “We looked at data from the Clipper fare transactions. We also looked at some raw data of the connections system, which is the computer aided dispatch automated vehicle location system,” Siroki said. He and Caltrans colleague Farhad Salemi said the team combined those feeds to identify where the mismatch occurred.

The analysis found that in November 2024 about 17% of e‑cash transactions on express routes lacked correct route information. Of that 17 percentage point shortfall, Caltrans attributed roughly 14 points to problems in the Clipper system (Cubic) and about 3 points to the connections/dispatch system, the presentation said. Farhad Salemi said the error pattern meant express trips were often charged the lower local fare.

Why it matters: missing route IDs on tap transactions directly reduce fare revenue and complicate monthly accounting. Executive Director Beth said staff had already taken interim steps with vendors and MTC to recover revenue but that recovery did not fully cover identified losses. Board members pushed staff to pursue additional restitution from regional partners.

Caltrans presented a conservative, partial accounting of the financial effect. Salemi reported that for November 2024 e‑cash on express buses SolTrans collected about $4,700 but would have expected roughly $12,000 if fares had been calculated correctly—about a $7,000 shortfall for that set of express transactions. On a broader view, Caltrans showed a roughly $16,000 gap in the November period across express and regular services that it linked to post‑upgrade problems. The presenters stressed these figures cover only e‑cash (Clipper app/cards) and exclude cash, passes and ADA/passes; staff said additional fare‑box analyses are ongoing.

Board reaction and next steps: Board members asked whether MTC had reimbursed SolTrans. Executive Director Beth said MTC had made an earlier payment—about $150,000—for a Fairfield/Suisun transition issue but staff had not received recurring, complete restitution since June 2024. Legal/compliance staff (identified in the meeting as Miss Curie) said SolTrans would need to review the existing agreement with Clipper/Cubic to determine legal remedies.

The board gave direction for staff to compile a summary of calculated losses and related costs and to send that package to MTC seeking reimbursement, then return to the board with any response and a proposed action item. Chair Scott framed the instruction as consensus direction; the board agreed.

The Caltrans presenters cautioned that some causes remain unidentified and that temporary fixes had reduced but not eliminated errors. Siroki said the team could not definitively isolate every failure point because some system logs are transient and are lost when vehicles power down. “We couldn’t identify exactly within the technology ecosystem where [the failures] were,” he said, “but we can identify high probability causes.”

Board members also flagged that daily average fare revenues have not returned to pre‑pandemic levels and that other factors (fare enforcement, sales channels and pass usage) are also affecting totals. Staff told the board they will present the expanded fare‑box analysis at a future meeting.

Ending: The board directed the executive director to send the loss summary to MTC and to return with a recommended action after MTC’s response. Caltrans’ full report was included in the board packet; the presenters gave a summary to the meeting.