Dunedin vulnerability assessment shows storm-surge and sea-level risks to critical city assets

Dunedin city officials on a public input night presented a citywide vulnerability assessment and adaptation-planning effort funded by a $380,950 Resilient Florida grant from the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, showing storm surge and sea-level rise hazards that would inundate multiple public assets.

City Manager Jennifer Bramley opened the session and said the grant — awarded in April 2024 — funds both the vulnerability assessment and the adaptation planning work and “unlocks for us, and for you, more opportunities for grant funding for city capital projects, and infrastructure improvements and adaption plans as well.”

The assessment, led by consultant WSP, maps exposure and sensitivity across 60 flood-hazard scenarios (combinations of tidal flooding, rainfall, storm surge and sea-level-rise projections) to identify where public infrastructure and facilities are most at risk and to inform future adaptation priorities.

Why this matters: The study translates technical projections into asset-level risk that city departments can use when deciding where to invest limited funds, where to relocate critical equipment (for example, generators) and which evacuation or shelter facilities may be compromised in major storms. Michelle Monteclaro, environmental program manager in Dunedin’s public works department, told attendees the study is “meant to give a better understanding of flood risk across the city on our public assets and how we can better prepare, plan and adapt for future flooding events.”

Key findings and examples - Exposure and sensitivity mapping: The project team overlaid asset inventories (critical facilities, critical infrastructure, natural/historic resources and transportation/evacuation routes) with hazard layers for current-day and future-planning horizons (including a 2050 intermediate scenario). The analysis yields location-specific depth-above-critical-elevation values to show how severely assets would be inundated. - Bayshore Boulevard and Edgewater Drive: The consultants showed example maps where Bayshore Boulevard sees roughly 4.25 feet of roadway inundation in current 100-year rainfall conditions rising to about 5 feet under a 2050 intermediate scenario; parts of Edgewater Drive show roughly a half-foot increase between the same scenarios. - Storm surge extremes: Storm-surge maps were the most severe in the presentation; one example showed about 14 feet of inundation in a current (2018-derived) surge scenario at a vulnerable location, rising roughly another foot under higher sea-level conditions. The team emphasized that if elevated roadways or critical infrastructure are being rebuilt, planners should account for future sea-level change when choosing final elevations. - Community facilities and shelters: Maps shown at the meeting flagged San Jose Elementary repeatedly in flooding scenarios; presenters noted that if the school functions as a hurricane shelter, its repeated inundation in surge scenarios is a concern. Honeymoon Island State Park facilities and a ferry terminal were shown as susceptible to tidal flooding under some scenarios. - Pinellas County Sheriff’s Office facility: The sensitivity table in the presentation displayed strong surge impacts for the sheriff’s facility across major surge scenarios, prompting the team to note that housing critical equipment (generators) at that location would be problematic during major hurricanes.

Technical approach and data sources - Funding and scope: Nabil Bhawani, the WSP consultant, explained the project is a planning-phase Resilient Florida award (the program has separate planning and implementation tracks) and that completing the assessment makes the city eligible to pursue implementation funding. - Sea-level and rainfall data: Presenters cited measured sea-level rise at the nearest NOAA/USGS gauge in Clearwater (about 8.5 inches observed over 50 years) and applied Resilient Florida/NOAA-provided sea-level scenarios (intermediate and intermediate-low) for planning horizons such as 2050. For future rainfall scenarios they used a FIU study developed with the South Florida Water Management District to apply change factors to current storm precipitation values. - Scenarios and outputs: The team produced 60 hazard scenarios (combinations of storms, sea-level projections and horizons) and used exposure analysis (asset elevation vs. hazard depth) followed by sensitivity scoring to distinguish assets that show exposure but would or would not sustain damage (for example, elevated structures on pilings vs. low-ground assets).

Public outreach, next steps and comment opportunities - Outreach: The presentation repeated that a public input meeting was held in August 2024 and maps and printed slides from the session were made available in the lobby after the presentation for attendees to review and comment. Presenters invited residents to continue providing input. - Next steps: According to the presentation, the consultant will finalize the sensitivity analysis and submit it to the state review process referenced in the meeting as FTP/FDP for approval, then identify focus areas for adaptation using exposure/sensitivity results alongside resident engagement and existing city complaint/hotspot layers. The adaptation plan will prioritize strategies to harden or relocate assets and guide future grant requests.

No formal actions were taken at the session; the meeting was a public input/workshop presentation and did not include motions or votes.

Attendees and speakers available for attribution in this report include City Manager Jennifer Bramley; Natalie Gass, sustainability program manager; Michelle Monteclaro, environmental program manager, City of Dunedin Public Works; and WSP consultants Nabil Bhawani and Javed (UCF researcher). The WSP team and city staff said they will be available in the lobby to answer technical questions and collect further public comments following the presentation.

The city is positioning the completed assessment as a prerequisite to seeking state or implementation-level funds to raise roads, relocate or harden critical equipment and to prioritize adaptation projects. Residents who want to review maps and materials were directed to the project page via QR code and invited to speak with staff at the meeting’s lobby session.