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SDG&E and SCE use bottoms‑up approaches for medium‑ and heavy‑duty EV forecasts; SDG&E finds higher energy due to vehicle mileages
Summary
SDG&E and SCE presented bottoms‑up medium‑ and heavy‑duty electrification forecasts at the May 22 workshop, using facility‑level DOT, DMV and port datasets (SDG&E) and a Guidehouse VAST study (SCE) to estimate localized energy and peak charging needs.
SDG&E and SCE presented bottoms‑up methods for forecasting medium‑ and heavy‑duty (MDHD) electrification at the May 22 workshop, telling stakeholders these forecasts aim to capture facility‑level charging requirements that are not well represented by system‑level IPR scenarios.
Why it matters: MDHD charging can be highly concentrated and may require significant distribution upgrades at depots, ports and freight corridors. Bottoms‑up, facility‑level forecasts can identify localized capacity needs that a system‑level forecast might understate.
SDG&E (Anderson Boles, Clean Transportation Analytics) described a three‑pillar methodology: (1) locate facilities using Department of Transportation (RigDig) records, DMV registration aggregates and port data; (2) categorize facilities against California medium/heavy‑duty…
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