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PG&E, SCE and SDG&E outline distribution forecasting methods: feeder disaggregation, EV energy reconciliation and new AAFS handling
Summary
At the May 22 DFWG workshop, the three IOUs described how they disaggregate CEC IPR forecasts to feeders and service points. Key themes included starting from IPR vintages, using AMI and geospatial data for allocation, energy‑based reconciliation for EVs, and splitting AAFS shapes into summer/winter components where needed.
At the Distribution Forecasting Working Group workshop on May 22, PG&E, SCE and SDG&E described how they convert the CEC IPR system‑level forecast into circuit and feeder‑level forecasts used by distribution planners.
Why it matters: Distribution planning depends on circuit‑level forecasts of peak megawatts and hourly shapes. Differences in disaggregation methods — and in how utilities treat mobile loads such as EVs or emerging fuel‑substitution patterns — change where and when planners expect capacity needs.
PG&E (presentation by Mark Jimenez) described a multi‑step disaggregation starting from the 2023 IPR reliability forecast at the TAC level, then mapping that energy to the PG&E service footprint, using AMI and other customer data and a spatial simulation tool the utility calls “LOTS” to allocate growth across about 3,000 feeders. Jimenez said PV, storage and energy efficiency are handled with class‑based adoption potentials,…
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