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Board approves 5‑year forecast as treasurer warns state funding changes, vouchers and HB96 could force cuts

3617301 · May 30, 2025
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Summary

The board approved the district's May 5‑year forecast showing flat revenues, rising expenditures and a projected negative fund balance by 2028 under current law; the treasurer highlighted uncertainties from the governor's budget and proposed property‑tax reforms (including House Bill 96) that could cut state support and limit carryover reserves.

Madam Treasurer, a district finance official, presented the Dayton City School District five‑year forecast at the May 29 meeting and told the board the document must be filed while the state budget remains unsettled. "The state budget process will not be finalized until June. Our 5 year forecast has to be filed by May," the treasurer said.

The forecast shows DPS is heavily dependent on state funding (about 62% of general‑fund revenue) with local revenue making up about 38%. Under current assumptions the forecast projects a declining cash balance and a negative fund balance by 2028 if revenues and expenditures follow the present trajectory. The treasurer and board flagged several legislative risks: the governor's proposed budget that shifts funding toward vouchers, proposed property‑tax reforms including a possible limit that would cap districts' carryover cash to 30% of prior year spending, and other bills that could reduce local tax base or state payments.

Why it matters: the treasurer framed the forecast as a planning tool to identify when cuts or levy proposals may be necessary. Board members noted the Government Finance Officers Association recommendation of a minimum 60‑day unencumbered reserve and warned that a state carryover cap would be “devastating” for many districts. Board member comments repeatedly returned to the potential effect of voucher expansion and property‑tax reforms on local revenue and the district's ability to maintain services.

Board action: The board voted to approve the May five‑year forecast. Vote recorded by the treasurer: President Goodwin — Yes; Doctor Bailey — Yes; Mister Lacey — Yes; Mister Smith — Yes; Miss Reinhardt — Yes; Miss Week — Yes. (6 yeses.) The treasurer noted the forecast submission would reflect current law and that staff would update the board if the state budget changes during the conference committee process.

Details and follow‑up: the forecast narrative states state funding remains uncertain, the district received one‑time federal ESSER funds in prior years that temporarily bolstered reserves, and new state or local changes could require cuts or levies. The treasurer asked board members to watch upcoming legislative developments and signaled staff will return with updated figures after the state budget is finalized.