Cuyahoga Falls treasurer warns of mid‑range shortfall; board approves five‑year forecast

Miss Stokley, the district’s treasurer/CFO, presented the Cuyahoga Falls Board of Education with the district’s required five‑year financial forecast on Wednesday and the board voted to adopt that forecast.

The forecast, which the treasurer said is conservative and uses current assumptions about state funding and local tax collections, shows positive balances through fiscal 2028 but a projected shortfall in fiscal 2029. “Based on this forecast, a revenue increase of 13% is needed to balance the budget or almost a $4,500,000 reduction in expenditures,” Miss Stokley told the board.

Why it matters: The five‑year forecast is a statutory planning document that informs the board about long‑term fiscal health, whether contracts can be certified, and when ballot measures may be required. The forecast and the timing of decisions it implies affect staff negotiations, capital projects, and potential community ballot measures.

Key figures and drivers presented

- Shortfall timing: The presentation showed positive operating results through 2028 but a projected operating deficit in 2029 under the stated assumptions. The forecast includes a modeled one‑time cash inflow of roughly $3.5 million tied to the planned sale of two buildings (Roberts and the current high school site).

- Levies and local capacity: The treasurer reminded the board that the district’s 9.97‑mill operating levy (a renewal levy) expires at the end of calendar 2026; if voters do not renew it, collections would stop in calendar 2027 and that reduction is included as a modeled risk in the forecast. She also explained Ohio’s effective millage adjustments and how reappraisals do not automatically increase voter‑approved levy revenue.

- State funding uncertainties: The presentation explained how Ohio’s Fair School Funding Plan and biennial budget process affect district revenues and that the legislature’s current activity (House and Senate versions) can materially change district receipts. The treasurer said the district is a guarantee district under the state formula and that state actions in recent months have reduced the state share in the formula.

- Personnel and benefit costs: Staff salaries and benefits are the largest line items (about three‑quarters of expenditures). The district has negotiated multi‑year contracts covering recent years; projected increases in salary steps and base raises are included in the forecast as assumptions for future years but remain subject to bargaining. Health insurance costs were flagged as particularly volatile — the district experienced large claim exposure and notably high premium increases (the treasurer reported an 18.14% premium increase this year and a 21.5% increase projected into the next year in materials shown).

Board action and next steps

The board approved the forecast by roll call at the meeting. The forecast also incorporates cost‑savings the district has already pursued (staffing reductions through attrition, a planned elementary school closure, and other operational reductions). Administration and the board discussed timelines: the forecast will guide near‑term decisions, including whether to place a levy on the ballot and the schedule for any required school‑closing or consolidation decisions.

Ending: The treasurer said the forecast shows the district has time to plan but that a decision point is approaching and that the board will continue to weigh revenue options, facilities plans and further expense reductions.