Bear Valley shifts to granular fire-potential modeling, expands inspections and automation

Bear Valley Electric Service presenters said the utility has revised its wildfire risk modeling and inspection programs and is piloting an asset-level risk tool to guide long-term mitigation spending.

The updates include replacing the National Fire Danger Rating System with a Technosilva Fire Potential Index (FPI) that produces reports every three hours and, as Alexis Ravnick, Presenter, Bear Valley Electric Service, said, “These data are generated by Technosilva for us with a greater than 98% uptime.” The utility also engaged Direxion Solutions to build a utility-level risk model that combines likelihood and consequence, including PSPS exposure and financial costs, into a single, unitless risk value to help prioritize hardening investments.

Why it matters: Bear Valley’s service territory is located in high-fire-threat tiers 2 and 3 and the utility said the new, more granular data lets it target circuits and assets more precisely for covered-conductor installs, vegetation work and other mitigations rather than relying on a single daily statewide rating.

Most important facts

- Modeling changes: Alexis Ravnick explained the shift away from the National Fire Danger Rating System, which produced one daily statewide report, to the Technosilva FPI tailored to Bear Valley’s territory. She said the new index gives finer spatial and temporal resolution and supports targeted PSPS (public safety power shutoff) planning. Ravnick also said the Direxion model is under review and currently outputs unitless risk values that the utility is working to translate into actionable metrics.

- Inspection and monitoring programs: Tom Chow, Presenter, Bear Valley Electric Service, described an ongoing automation and monitoring program that began in 2019 to add fiber and SCADA telemetry to substations and major circuits. Chow said the utility has replaced older protective fuses with electronic devices and is automating reclosers, switches and other field devices where communications permit.

- Field inspection cadence: Jared Hennen, Presenter, Bear Valley Electric Service, outlined inspection practices: annual UAV (photography/thermography) of primary poles, an annual LIDAR program (vehicle- and drone-mounted) for vegetation encroachment, two full ground patrols per year (one internal, one third-party), and intrusive pole testing of about 850 poles per year ("We do about 850 poles a year. That's approximately 10% of our whole entire system," Hennen said). Hennen added the utility runs a five-year GO 165 detailed inspection cycle but has begun risk-prioritizing higher-risk circuits for earlier review.

- Data sources and model inputs: Ravnick and others said Direxion’s model draws on Bear Valley’s asset database and inspection results plus Technosilva outputs and outage/ignition data. Ravnick noted CPUC ignition data and other historic outage logs were also reviewed. In response to questions, Ravnick said, “While it is true that we have not had a reportable ignition, we do have access to CPUC data regarding ignitions from other utilities, and those data in combination with Technosilva, FireS data have been fed into the Direxion model to generate these probabilities and risk values.” She also confirmed Technosilva inputs are used for both ignition likelihood and consequence portions of the Direxion model.

- Metrics and limits: Presenters cautioned some model outputs remain unitless and are being refined. Ravnick said the Direxion output does not yet map to a percent probability for each asset; that translation is a planned improvement. The presenters also reported operational metrics: the company’s sustained average interruption duration index (SADI) for early 2025 was reported as below 3 (minutes) in internal review, a low figure the team attributed in part to covered conductor and vegetation-management work; presenters noted that figure is subject to seasonal change and that the utility was impacted by a January de-energization by Southern California Edison that affected supply.

- Resilience and generation: The utility has an 8.4 MW peaker plant that was used during January supply interruptions; Paul Marconi, Presenter, Bear Valley Electric Service, said the plant helped maintain critical and commercial service but could not carry full winter loads without rolling outages because it is a peaker plant with limited stability under rapid load changes. Presenters said planned additions of solar and battery storage aim to allow controlled islanding and to stabilize the peaker plant’s response to load swings.

Discussion, direction and next steps

- Discussion: Presenters and attendees discussed model validation, what inputs feed consequence vs. ignition portions of the model, how Direxion outputs compare to the existing fire-safety circuit matrix, and whether the utility’s historical ignition record should influence prioritization. Attendees asked for clarification on which Direxion outputs are already used in the 2025 WMP; presenters said Direxion phase-2 outputs have been received and are under review and training before operational adoption.

- Direction (staff action): Presenters said Bear Valley will continue to (1) compare Direxion results to its current Firesite and circuit-matrix outputs, (2) receive training and implement the Direxion tool in phases, and (3) pursue a later phase with Jensen Hughes to implement protective-device-settings analytics. The utility also committed to continue coordinating PSPS and supply planning with Southern California Edison.

- Formal decisions: No formal motions or regulatory approvals were taken during the workshop segment; presenters described program status and planned implementation steps.

Context and background

Bear Valley’s territory is small relative to other Southern California utilities (presenters said about 205 miles of line), which the utility said lets it perform multiple inspections per year. Presenters characterized the Fire Potential Index as an operational improvement because it produces temporally granular (three-hour) reports and includes areas beyond immediate service lines to account for fire propagation. The Direxion model is intended to add asset-level, objective prioritization that incorporates cost, reliability and environmental consequences in addition to bare-wire mileage.

What to watch next

Bear Valley will complete review and training on Direxion phase-2 outputs, pursue a Jensen Hughes phase 3 to implement protective-device analytics, continue substation automation and fiber/SCADA rollouts, and advance its planned solar-plus-battery project intended to enable greater islanding capability.

Ending

Presenters closed the session to audience questions, noting the utility will make at least one presenter available for a later, broader Q&A session during the workshop. The team also said it will continue refining model outputs and inspection prioritization before formally adopting Direxion outputs in the WMP.