EMS ISD report warns vouchers, charters and private schools could slow public enrollment growth

Eagle Mountain Saginaw Independent School District officials told the board on May 19 that steady local homebuilding and a large pipeline of future lots are likely to sustain growth in some attendance zones but that statewide shifts — rising virtual and charter enrollment and a forthcoming state voucher program — could reduce traditional public-school enrollment and district revenue.

The district’s first-quarter demographics and housing briefing showed the DFW region still has low unemployment and continued job growth, and the district ranked eighth in annual single-family closings with 1,784. But presenter Bob Tinkleton said first-quarter housing starts were down notably and that the district recorded about 1,800 vacant developed lots and 9,368 future lots across the attendance zones.

“T he Eagle Mountain Elementary zone will see sustained growth just because of that high number of future lots,” Tinkleton said, noting Hatley Elementary had the most annualized starts in the quarter but may “burn through” its supply sooner.

Why it matters: the district projects next year’s enrollment at a little over 24,100 students (high case about 24,300) and estimates enrollment could fall to between 25,200 and 25,800 over five years under conservative assumptions. Officials said those figures are sensitive to where students enroll — in-district, neighboring districts, charter schools, private schools or state voucher recipients — which affects average daily attendance revenue and staffing needs.

Tinkleton highlighted statewide trends masking local change: Texas public-school enrollment rose by roughly 13,000 this year but that increase included virtual and charter growth. He said traditional brick‑and‑mortar public-school enrollment statewide has declined by about 15,000 once virtual and charter enrollments are removed.

“ If we pull the Texas virtual number out and the charter school enrollment number out, traditional public-school brick-and-mortar enrollment has actually declined by about 15,000 students,” Tinkleton said.

The district’s transfer data show more students transferring out than in. The presentation listed about 258 transfers into EMS ISD this year and about 2,806 district residents transferring to other districts or charter schools, with International Leadership of Texas charter schools making up the largest portion of transfers out.

Tinkleton reviewed research from states that already have voucher programs — Florida, Ohio and Indiana — and said private-school enrollment rose in those states after voucher adoption (he cited a 29% private-school growth in Florida over about seven years). He also said the state has set aside roughly $1 billion for the new Texas voucher program, which is expected to begin in the 2026–27 school year, and estimated that if vouchers fully reached $10,000 per student it would cover roughly 100,000 students — though he cautioned the net loss of public students will depend on how many voucher recipients already attend private school or are homeschooled.

“There’s about a billion dollars set aside for the funding of it, which if you take the $10,000 per student and just apply it to the private school, that’s about a hundred thousand kids. Now what we don’t know is of those that are applying, how many of those are already in private school?” Tinkleton said.

Board members asked for further analysis of how many leavers remain physically in district residences and could be re‑engaged; Tinkleton described a data run that tracked roughly 2,600 leavers and found about 80% remained in their homes but enrolled elsewhere (charter, neighboring district or virtual). He said the district will continue to track returners and will include updated analysis in fall reporting.

Ending: Tinkleton said the district will map private‑school locations and continue to refine mid‑range enrollment projections as voucher administrative details come from the Texas Comptroller’s Office and as more housing starts and closings data arrive.