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DeBary projects steady growth to about 33,000 by 2045, staff says
Summary
City staff presented population trends showing DeBary has outpaced Volusia County historically and, under current assumptions, could grow from roughly 24,500 in 2024 to just over 33,000 by 2045, with an expected slowdown after 2030 as the city approaches buildout.
Stephen Bap, the City of DeBary’s growth management director, told the City Council at its May 21 workshop that the city’s population has historically grown faster than Volusia County and that staff’s baseline projection places DeBary’s population at about 24,503 as of January 2024 and just over 33,000 by 2045.
“Tonight’s workshop will focus on four areas: population, land use, housing and economic trends,” Bap said as he opened the data presentation. He described a pattern in which DeBary’s growth peaked in the 1980s (approaching an 80% decade change) and then tapered; recent decades show growth closer to the county’s rate but still above it.
Staff presented a set of projections that assume near-term growth will accelerate to a roughly 17% rate over the next five years from a current raw estimate near 13%, then decline after about 2030 and stabilize near a 1% annual rate past 2040 as remaining developable land is consumed. Bap said the projection model includes vacancy rate, household size and the split between owner-occupied and renter-occupied units.
Demographic details presented to the council showed that more than half of residents are between ages 20 and 64; the city has a sizable 65-and-over population (noted elsewhere in the presentation as nearly 28 percent). Income data cited U.S. Census Bureau sources: owner-occupied median household income was given as $84,840 and renter median income as $57,169; the largest income band for primary earners was shown between $100,000 and $149,999.
On commuting and employment, staff reported a mean commute time of about 27 minutes and said roughly three-quarters of DeBary residents work in the city. The presentation also showed roughly 11,000 people in the workforce and an unemployment rate near 4 percent; post‑COVID remote-work rates were shown around 16 percent.
Council members greeted the analysis with a mix of interest and concern. Council member Carmen Sowell said the briefing was “very informative and very scary all at the same time,” noting the city may exceed previously discussed informal expectations of a 25,000 population cap. Council member Stevenson and Vice Mayor Butler also thanked staff for the detail and said the figures will help council planning.
Staff told the council that detailed maps showing where population is concentrated will be incorporated into the city’s comprehensive-plan update. The council scheduled follow-up workshops to address infrastructure topics that will intersect with population growth, including transportation, potable water and schools.
